US-Venezuela tensions add risk premium, but oil supply impact seen limited for now, say analysts

Oil prices are expected to see only a limited reaction to the United States’ military action against Venezuela, with market experts saying the incident adds a risk premium but is unlikely to disrupt global crude supply in a meaningful way.

Analysts quoted by news report said that Venezuela’s oil exports have already been under pressure due to sanctions and logistical constraints, reducing the scope for a fresh shock. Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at Swiss bank UBS, told UAE-based The National News that it is still early to fully assess the impact, but Venezuelan production and exports have been trending lower since the US began blocking oil tankers. The key risk, he said, is that this downward pressure could persist if the situation escalates.

Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, said the immediate effect on the oil market is modest. “There is not much beyond another uptick in the Venezuela risk premium,” she said, indicating that broader supply-demand dynamics remain largely unchanged.

The comments followed confirmation from US President Donald Trump that American forces had carried out strikes against Venezuela. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the operation involved a large-scale strike and claimed that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country. US media outlets CBS News and Fox News, along with AFP citing Trump administration officials, reported that US forces were involved in the attacks.

Domestic market

Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, told Livemint geopolitical uncertainty following the US action could lift prices across commodities. He expects a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil and gasoline. Gupta said COMEX gold, which closed at $4,345.50 an ounce, could test $4,380, while silver may move toward the $75–$78 range. Brent crude, he added, could rise to between $62 and $65 per barrel.

In domestic markets, Gupta said MCX gold prices could approach ₹1,40,000 per 10 grams, while silver may rise to ₹2,45,000 per kg. MCX crude oil prices are expected to trade around ₹5,200–₹5,300 per barrel.

Explaining the upward pressure on precious metals, Sandeep Pandey, co-founder of Basav Capital, said the US-Venezuela conflict has raised concerns over shipping routes used by major silver exporters, potentially tightening supply. Gold, he added, is likely to benefit from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Earlier in the day, Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, said "Gold is inching up as safe-haven demands increase despite constant uncertainties across global markets. This can be attributed to increased buying sentiments despite periods of consolidation as traders and investors monitor interest rate and currency trends. Although growth is gradual, gold remains supported at higher levels, which is an indication that the outlook for gold is positive in the short run."

Crude oil and US-Venezuela

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have intensified since early December, when President Trump ordered a naval blockade off Venezuela’s coast to stop sanctioned oil tankers. The move disrupted shipping routes, delayed exports and cut revenues for Maduro’s government.

The blockade has also squeezed storage capacity, forcing Venezuela to shut some extra-heavy crude wells in the Orinoco Belt. State oil company PDVSA has reportedly begun disabling producing wells, mainly affecting exports to China. Despite the pressure, Maduro has struck a conciliatory tone, saying Venezuela is open to US investment in its oil sector and ready for serious talks with Washington on cooperation, including efforts to combat drug trafficking.