‘Alienating its most important emerging ally’: Market expert says US is dictated less by principles

The unequal treatment meted out to India as opposed to China for buying Russian oil will only alienate US’s biggest emerging partner, said market expert, investor and commentator Ajay Bagga. He said Washington’s treatment only sends a signal that it would not penalise violators if they deem them too important.

“By targeting India so forcefully, the US risks alienating one of its most important emerging partners – at precisely the moment when India’s cooperation on technology, defence, and regional security is most needed. By sparing China, Washington sends a message that large-scale violations of the sanctions regime will be tolerated if the violator is too important – or too feared – to punish, reinforcing the cynical perception that US policy is dictated less by principle than by power calculus,” said Bagga.

In a previous post on X, he asked why is the US “punishing India” but not China. “The unequal treatment reflects a confluence of cold political calculation, economic leverage, and the difference between how US policymakers view India and China,” he said.

Bagga’s post comes after the US’ constant distancing of New Delhi, while cozying up to Beijing and even Islamabad. India has not only been accused of financing Russia’s war against Ukraine by buying Russian oil, but the tariff of 50 per cent, which is one of the highest tariffs in the world, is also an indication of Washington’s questionable belief.

However, China that buys as much Russian oil as India, has not suffered the same fate, even as both Washington and Beijing engaged in a reciprocal tariff war just months ago. In fact, the US and China have extended their tariff truce by 90 days, something which did not happen with India even as the trade discussions were underway.

This 90-day decision came as US retailers prepared for the holiday season, a critical time for imports like electronics and toys. President Donald Trump announced the extension, delaying higher tariffs for China until November 10, 2025.

China's Commerce Ministry has also paused additional tariffs, extending its deadline by 90 days. This delays the inclusion of US firms on China's trade restriction lists, initially targeted in April.

This extension is crucial for managing the seasonal import surge, taxed at lower rates. Without it, tariffs could have risen to 145 per cent on Chinese goods and 125 per cent on US goods, leading to a trade embargo.

Currently, the agreement secures a 30 per cent tariff on Chinese imports to the US, with reciprocal duties of 10 per cent on US imports into China.