Former ambassador's advice: 'US is more than Trump, time for India to play long game'

Former Indian ambassador to the United States, Arun K Singh, has urged New Delhi to remain strategically patient and continue building long-term ties with the US, despite Donald Trump's sharp turn on trade and his renewed engagement with Pakistan. Writing in an opinion piece for NDTV on Monday, Singh warned that recent developments have "resurrected difficult memories of US coercion," but stressed that "the US is more than Trump" and India must now "play the long game."

"The architects of the future structures and vision for India-US relations...will now, of necessity, have to go back to the drawing board," Singh wrote. Citing Trump's July 30 announcement of 25% tariffs on Indian imports and his criticism of India's Russia ties, Singh said the former president's "accompanying language has already resurrected difficult memories of US coercion, and its periodic lack of empathy for the compulsions of a large, diverse and complex developing country."

Singh rebutted Trump's claim that India has "done little business" with the US, laying out the numbers: "The US, at $200 billion, is India's largest trading partner, and India is the twelfth-largest for the US. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India from the US, at $60 billion, is the largest from any country. Indian companies, in turn, have invested more than $40 billion in the US and have a presence across all 50 American States."

He added, "Indian students, at 300,000, are the largest group of foreign students there, injecting around $10 billion into the US education system. Indian origin tech workers, entrepreneurs and CEOs are making recognised contributions to US tech leadership."

Responding to Trump's criticism of India's Russian defence and energy ties, Singh noted that even former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had publicly acknowledged New Delhi's historical dependence on Russia during periods when "the United States was not able to be a partner." He added that India has already been diversifying its defence purchases and that recent energy deals with Russia were based on "spot market conditions" in a sanctions-hit global environment.

Singh pointed to significant strides in bilateral defence and technology cooperation, from high-level military exercises to the 80% technology transfer of GE F414 engines to HAL and the 2023 partnership in critical and emerging technologies. "Now, in one fell swoop, Trump has reignited questions about the US being a reliable partner for India's critical needs and at critical moments," he wrote.

He also raised concerns about Trump's renewed outreach to Pakistan. "Trump has now resurrected the US-Pakistan relationship from the dip of the Biden years, and is seeking natural resources, critical minerals and crypto business opportunities and profit for his business partners and supporters."

Highlighting the long arc of US-India relations, Singh recalled moments of support such as America’s backing during the Kargil conflict in 1999, its push for India-specific waivers at the IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers Group in 2008, and continued intelligence-sharing after Galwan. "The US’ partnership with India in the Indo-Pacific and the Quad was largely limited to the maritime domain and did not extend to India's concerns in the continental Northwest," he observed.

"American architects of the relationship will need to focus more on the value to them of a strong and independent-minded India," Singh said. "They would be setting things up for future hand-wringing if the expectation is that India would become a more pliable partner in the service of the US."

He concluded: "The US is much more than Trump and his amplifying surrounding structure...Clearly, this is the time for India, in turn, to play the ‘long game’ with the US, while preserving its national security and societal interests."

At a press briefing on August 1, the Ministry of External Affairs stated this position, saying: "We have strong ties with the United States...this partnership has weathered several transitions and challenges. We remain focused on the substantive agenda… and are confident that the relationship will continue to move forward."