'India lives in a jungle world where...': Ex-foreign secretary on what Venezuela crisis means for New Delhi

Former foreign secretary Nirupama Menon Rao on Monday cautioned against drawing sweeping strategic conclusions from the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. She argued that the often-invoked Venezuela-Taiwan analogy is "overstated" and warned that the normalisation of regime change by force carries long-term risks for countries like India.

In a detailed assessment of the situation, Rao said Washington's action underlined an uncomfortable reality of global politics while also creating strategic dilemmas for middle powers that depend on sovereignty and non-intervention.

"On Venezuela, realism demands holding two truths together," Rao said. "Power still shapes outcomes, and deterrence is real in a hard world. That is what the U.S action demonstrates."

At the same time, she said the implications of such actions go beyond immediate outcomes. "No doubt, for countries like India, the normalisation of regime change by force carries long-term risks," Rao said. "What may strengthen deterrence in the short run can also increase unpredictability—and unpredictability is a strategic cost for middle powers."

Addressing comparisons being drawn between Venezuela and Taiwan, Rao said the analogy risks misreading how Beijing actually makes strategic decisions. "People speak of the Venezuela–Taiwan analogy. It is overstated," she said. "China's decisions on Taiwan will turn on feasibility: military capability, probability of success, economic fallout, and the likelihood of external intervention."

She rejected the idea that precedent alone shapes such choices. "Precedent and legal analogy belong to justification, not strategy," Rao said. "China calculates risk, not theology."

Rao, who served as foreign secretary from 2009 to 2011, said India's response should avoid both endorsement and moral condemnation, instead staying rooted in its own strategic framework.

"India's task is not to applaud or to moralise, but to stay consistent with its own strategic logic," she said. "India lives in a jungle world where power rules the forest, yet it also relies on sovereignty and non-intervention when it matters closer to home."

She described strategic autonomy as a balancing act rather than a slogan. "Strategic autonomy today means understanding power without surrendering principle—and holding both in tension with clarity, foresight and discipline," Rao said.

On Sunday, India voiced "deep concern" over the US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. In its first reaction, New Delhi reaffirmed its support for the well-being of the Venezuelan people and said it was closely monitoring developments.

On January 3, Maduro was captured and taken to the United States. Republican Congressman Don Bacon, while praising President Donald Trump's decision as 'great for the future of Venezuelans and the region', warned it could be cited elsewhere. He said that 'Russia will use this to justify' their actions against Ukraine, and China will justify an 'invasion of Taiwan.'