'India will survive this patience game': Husain Haqqani hints Trump-led US may blink first

Husain Haqqani, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, has pointed to India's resilience in the face of rising pressure from President Donald Trump's tariff war, suggesting that India has a better chance of outlasting the US administration's aggressive stance.

"This too shall pass. Based on history, India has a better chance of surviving a game of patience than Trump-led US," Haqqani said in a post on X. "Waiting three and a half years is not going to be too hard for India though there might be political fallout inside the country."

Haqqani also shared a report where Rahul Gandhi, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha,  blasted Trump for additional tariffs. He said Trump seemed to have united Indians. "The opposition is criticizing Trump’s bullying as the government deals with it. Ironically, until recently India was one of a few countries in the world where the public viewed US favorably," he wrote. 

Haqqani's remarks come amid escalating US tariffs on Indian goods, with the latest move by Trump doubling duties to 50% on Indian imports due to New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil. This aggressive action targets key sectors such as textiles, marine exports, and leather products, which are expected to face significant disruption in the US market. 

India's External Affairs Ministry has called the move "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable," emphasising that India will take all necessary steps to protect its national interests. New Delhi has vowed to take all necessary actions to safeguard its national interests. 

"For us, the interest of our farmers is our top priority. India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers. I know personally, I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it. Today, India is ready for the country's farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Amid this backdrop, Michael McFaul, former US Ambassador to Russia, raised further questions regarding the rationale behind the tariffs. He pointed out the inconsistency in targeting India over its oil imports from Russia while China, the larger buyer, faces no such scrutiny.

"Why Trump is imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil but NOT doing the same to Chinese goods even though China imports more Russian oil demands an explanation," McFaul said.

A former US trade official said the additional duty will essentially cut off most Indian exports to the US, voicing concern over the escalating bilateral dispute. "Regrettably, the US-India dispute is escalating....the additional 25 per cent tariff will essentially cut off most Indian exports to the US," said senior Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) and former Deputy US Trade Representative Wendy Cutler. 

After the new tarrifs, India's competitors will be much better placed in the US market as their duty is lower - Myanmar (40 per cent), Thailand and Cambodia (both 36 per cent), Bangladesh (35 per cent), Indonesia (32 per cent), China and Sri Lanka (both 30 per cent), Malaysia (25 per cent), Philippines and Vietnam (both 20 per cent).