Overall monsoon rainfall good, to have positive impact on agriculture: Ramesh Chand

Expressing satisfaction with the progress of the monsoon rains this year, NITI Aayog Member Ramesh Chand has said that the agriculture sector is likely to grow at over 5% this fiscal.

“The monsoons are a biological, natural phenomenon. People should not expect perfection in this. Overall rainfall has been very good,” Chand told BT in an interview.

He pointed out that there are three parameters of evaluating the monsoons and its impact on agriculture. The most important of these is the total amount of rainfall, the second is its distribution and the third is its date of arrival.

“The most important of these is the total amount of rainfall. Even if the distribution is not very good, the effect of the total rainfall is always positive. This is what various studies have shown. The total rainfall is also important for the groundwater level. So subsequently, in Rabi, how much water will be available, moisture retention in the soil,” he pointed out.

A Bank of Baroda research report had recently highlighted that rainfall is 7% above the Long Period Average (LPA) until August 27. Pickup in momentum has been noted towards the end of August 2024, with cumulative rainfall at 73.8 mm between August 21 and 27, compared with 48.9mm between August 13 and 20 this year, it had noted.

Chand, who is an agriculture economist, underlined that if overall rainfall is good, it should be viewed as positive and it always has a positive impact on performance of agriculture.

He further noted that in terms of distribution, while there have been floods in some pockets; they have been for a short time period this year and limited to localised areas. “So this time, I think that monsoon has been good so far, I expect positive effect of this monsoon,” he said.

He also remains upbeat about prospects for the farm sector this fiscal and is confident that it will grow at over 5% this fiscal. Gross value addition in the agriculture sector was just 1.4% in 2023-24 as against 4.7% in 2022-23.

Chand pointed out that the low growth in the agriculture sector happened after seven years and said it was the result of the cumulative base effect. “In 2024-25, I expect growth to be more than 5% that will be consistent with the long run trend,” he said, adding that agri sector GVA growth in FY24 was low because of the El Nino effect. He further noted that even in the rabi season, rains were very erratic.