Pakistan to ditch US again? Experts say Trump's overture is just short-term noise

US President Donald Trump's efforts to deepen ties with Pakistan have raised concerns within China, particularly given Pakistan's long-standing alliance with Beijing. Strategic experts in China argue that despite the Trump administration’s efforts, Islamabad’s relationship with Beijing is too ingrained to be easily disrupted.

Last month, Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, made his first official visit to China since becoming field marshal. This visit followed a five-day trip to Washington, where he had a private luncheon with President Trump. The US-Pakistan meeting culminated in a commitment to enhancing cooperation, including a new oil deal. This marks a significant shift in American foreign policy, with implications not only for India but also for China and the broader Middle East.

During his visit to Beijing, General Munir met with senior Chinese leaders, including Vice President Han Zheng, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and senior PLA officials. However, he did not meet President Xi Jinping, a stark contrast to his predecessor General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s 2018 trip, where he met Xi. Official readouts of the meetings focused on diplomatic formalities and reiterated strong bilateral ties. However, experts argue that Beijing’s perception of the Trump-Munir relationship remains uncertain, especially considering Trump’s broader strategy to curb China’s global influence.

Chinese strategic experts Hu Shisheng, Director of the Institute for South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, and Jesse Wang, a research fellow at Huaxia South Asia Economic and Cultural Exchange Centre, offered insights into Beijing’s view on this emerging Washington-Islamabad dynamic. Hu emphasised that Pakistan is unlikely to trade its strong ties with China for US interests, stating, "Pakistan will not be that easily hooked by Trump."

Wang echoed this sentiment, suggesting that while Trump's outreach to Pakistan might seem disruptive to China, it won’t shake the structural stability of Sino-Pakistani relations. “The US intervention has created short-term geopolitical noise but is unlikely to shake the foundation of China-Pakistan dependence,” he said.

Both experts emphasized that Pakistan’s relationship with China runs far deeper than any short-term overtures from the US. Historically, Pakistan has managed to cultivate its ties with both China and the US, even during the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, without one relationship undermining the other. “The China-Pakistan relationship is a unique bilateral bond that has withstood the test of time,” Hu said. “Of course, the Trump team expects to see Pakistan getting away from China, but Pakistan will not buy the story,” he added.

Regarding Trump’s approach to India, both experts noted that the US’s evolving policy reflects frustration with India’s reluctance to align completely with American interests. Hu noted that Trump’s threats of high tariffs on India do not signify a denial of India’s strategic importance. Instead, they reflect a push for India to play a more active role in curbing China’s rise. “It stems from the Trump administration's urgent desire for India to play a substantive role in bolstering US supremacy,” Hu said.

Wang added that this rhetoric aligns with Trump’s "art-of-the-deal" approach: applying maximum pressure to secure concessions. “If India holds firm with strategic resolve, Trump may well revert to a more conciliatory stance towards the country,” Wang stated. He also noted that the strategic dependence between India and the US has been rapidly weakening under Trump, signaling a shift in the bilateral relationship.

As the US-Pakistan dynamic shifts, the foundation of Sino-Pakistani ties remains steadfast. According to experts, while Pakistan will continue to navigate its relationship with both the US and China, the long-standing strategic partnership with China remains resilient in the face of external pressures.

(With inputs from PTI)