While China wins a 90-day trade truce with US, India talks 'may take time': Here's what we know

The US-China trade ceasefire, announced on Monday after 39 days of tariff escalation, has calmed global markets. But fresh attention is on Washington’s trade talks with India after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick cautioned, they 'may take time', raising eyebrows.

Lutnick’s comments, made over the weekend on Bloomberg Podcasts, marked a shift from the upbeat signals sent by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in recent weeks. 

While praising India’s engagement, Lutnick pointed to the sheer complexity of the talks — covering over 7,000 tariff lines — as a key reason for the slower pace. “It just takes time, it takes work,” he said, adding that any progress would have to come sector by sector. 

Even a “mini-deal,” he acknowledged, was unlikely to be fast-tracked.

This more measured tone contrasts with earlier statements by Trump, who had claimed a deal with India was “coming along great,” even suggesting India had agreed to drop tariffs to “nothing.” 

Bessent, too, had described the negotiations as being “very close,” hinting that the India deal might be one of the first major trade agreements of Trump’s second term. 

There was even speculation that Trump’s teased “major trade deal with a big, highly respected country” referred to India.

Analysts say the breakthrough with China has given the US room to recalibrate its approach to India, allowing for a focus on technical details rather than rushing toward a headline-grabbing announcement. 

The US-China truce, a 90-day pause on new tariffs, saw Washington slash duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while Beijing cut tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. Analysts say the deal sets a higher bar for future talks with other partners, including India, particularly in sensitive sectors like agriculture, autos, and digital trade.

Diplomatic tensions have also added to the complexities. Trump’s recent social media posts offering to mediate in the India-Pakistan ceasefire and Kashmir dispute sparked strong reactions from New Delhi.

Despite these undercurrents, Indian markets rallied on Monday, buoyed by the broader optimism from the US-China truce. The BSE IT index surged 6.46% to 37,426.17, with Birlasoft, Oracle Financial, and L&T Technology Services rising 7–9%. Persistent Systems, Coforge, Zensar Tech, and Infosys gained 7–8%, while LTIMindtree, KPIT Technologies, Wipro, Mphasis, HCL Tech, and Cyient climbed over 6%. TCS advanced 4.65% to ₹3,602.30.

Traders linked the rally to hopes that easing global trade tensions would revive US business confidence and fuel demand for Indian IT services. However, analysts cautioned that the US economy is still forecast to slow in 2025, keeping risks alive for India’s export-driven sectors.