Gift Nifty flat ahead of RBI's monetary policy; key levels to watch out for Nifty and Nifty Bank

Following the recovery from election jitters, Nifty futures on the Nifty International Exchange traded merely 3 points, or 0.01 per cent, higher at 22,902.50, hinting at a flat start for the domestic market on Friday. The market participants will be keenly looking at the RBI's monetary policy and its guidance along with political updates related to developments around ministry allocation.
 

Investors heaved sigh of relief as the confidence strengthened post two key allies pledged their support to form a new government with the BJP, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
 

"Even global factors contributed to today’s rally as the hopes revived for rate cut possibility in US Fed’s September meet, after weaker than expected jobs data. All eyes will be on government formation this weekend along with ECB meet today and RBI policy outcome and commentary tomorrow," Khemka added.
 

"The RBI is expected to maintain its current stance. RBI is likely to maintain the status quo until inflation is brought within the target range. Other challenges include extreme weather conditions, stock market volatility, and geopolitical tensions, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
 

"It is likely to be a non-event for the Markets. The market will focus on the inflation and GDP forecast of FY25, a reduction in inflation and increase in GDP trajectory will be taken positive. However the chance is low in this policy rather than in the next policy as the new coalition structure, monsoon and FDA policy is reviewed," he said.
 

Nifty Outlook
Nifty has returned to its bullish terrain, and the across-board participation certainly depicts the bullish undertone of the market participants, said Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst, Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One. The RBI monetary policy outcome is likely to dictate the near trend in the market, he said.
 

"From a technical standpoint, the 20-day SMA around 22,600 and the 61.80 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of 22,552 are expected to provide a supportive foundation on an intermediate basis. On the higher end, the 23,000 mark withholds major resilience and needs a cautious stance as we approach the same," Krishan added.
 

Nifty50 has formed small bullish candles. The immediate resistance for the index is placed near the 23,000, followed by 23,340, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. The 34-DEMA is positioned near 22,520, which will act as immediate support for the index, followed by the 22,000 level, he said.
 

Shrikant Chouhan, Head equity Research at Kotak Securities views that Nifty50 has completed one leg of pullback rally and we could see some profit booking at higher levels. For the day traders now, 22,650 would act as a key support level. As long as the market is trading above the same, the positive sentiment is likely to continue, he said.
 

Nifty Bank Outlook
Bank Nifty has also witnessed a range-bound day of trade. The RBI policy event is likely to have a bearing on the bank Nifty tomorrow, said Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan. Key Support levels are placed at 48,800-48,500 while key resistance is at 49,700-50,000 zone. We expect the Bank Nifty to consolidate around 49,000 for tomorrow’s trading session," he said.
 

Bank Nifty formed an indecisive candle, indicating market uncertainty. It found support near its 10-DMA, suggesting a potential rebound, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Sustaining above the 21-DMA, it shows a bullish trend. Key levels to watch are 48,600 as crucial support and 49,800 as resistance, determining the market's direction ahead," he said.
 

Nifty Bank has formed a tiny red candle on the daily scale, indicating a pause after strong upward momentum, said Yedve from Asit C Mehta. "The 34-DEMA is positioned near 48,190, which will act as immediate support for the index, followed by 47,500, where the 100-DEMA is placed. The immediate resistance for the index is placed near the 50,000 level, followed by 51,000."
 

 

 

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