Budget 2026: Paytm shares surge 22% from day's lows; Check reason, reviews, targets & more

Shares of One 97 Communications Ltd, the parent company of fintech platform Paytm, recovered nearly 22 per cent from day's low on Sunday after the Union Budget announcements. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a Rs 2,000 crore incentive scheme or subsidy for the popular digital payment method UPI and RuPay debit card for the upcoming financial year.

Following the announcement, shares of Paytm rebounded as much as 21.57 per cent to Rs 1,244.05 on Sunday, from its day's low at Rs 1023.30. From its previous close at Rs 1137, the stock was seen up 9.45 per cent. The total market capitalization of the company stood at Rs 78,000 crore for the day.

This is close to the Rs 2,196 crore subsidy that the government is expected to spend in FY25-26 as per the revised estimate of budget. However, it is well below the industry's expectation of around Rs 4,500 crore. UPI is the country’s most popular digital payment method, facilitating around 85 percent of all online transactions, registering a staggering 70 per cent yearly growth.

Paytm Q3 results
One 97 Communications flipped into black as it reported a net profit of Rs 225 in the December 2025 quarter, while revenue increased 20 per cent YoY to Rs 2,194 crore for the December 2025 quarter. The Paytm-parent's Ebitda also turned positive to Rs 156 crore, while ebitda margins came in at 7 per cent for the quarter.

Paytm target price
Paytm delivered another steady quarter. Contribution margin (CM) declined 160bps QoQ due to phasing out of DLG loans. While payments and financial services continued growth momentum, marketing services is likely to have bottomed out and is expected to grow steadily QoQ, said JM Financial.

"Management expects CM to sustain in the mid-50s, supported by operating leverage and RoI-driven investments, With robust operating performance along with potential regulatory triggers (wallet license and MDR on UPI), risk-reward remains favourable," it added while reiterating a 'buy' with March 2027 target price of Rs 1,660, valuing Paytm at 40 times FY28E EBITDA multiple.

Paytm reported a strong set of 3Q26 results, reinforcing the narrative of steady progress toward sustainable profitability. Healthy GMV growth, a sharp acceleration in financial services revenue, disciplined cost control, and a sequential recovery in marketing revenue were the key positives this quarter, said Bernstein.

"Importantly, management commentary provided comfort on recent regulatory developments around Rent and related payments as well as real-money gaming, with the company indicating that the impact from these developments has been insignificant," it adds with an 'outperform' rating and a target price of Rs 1,600.

Paytm's profit for December 25 quarter was ahead of estimates even as it included Rs 12 crore of one-time labour code cost. Revenue rose by 20 per cent YoY, led by higher growth in financial services (loan origination), and contribution profit grew by 30 per cent, said Jefferies. "Lower indirect costs aided Ebitda and profit," it added with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 1,450.