Delhivery, VRL Logistics, Blue Dart Express, TCI Express: Target prices for logistics stocks

Emkay Global in its latest note anticipated a mixed set of quarterly results for logistics companies, attributing to increased competition among organised players, which would be partially offset by seasonality. The broking firm said a 20% year-on-year rise in GST e-way bill volumes for Q4FY25 is hinting at robust growth for B2B operators. Delhivery's PTL segment is expected to report a 20% revenue increase, reflecting this trend.

Amidst these developments, Delhivery is forecast to achieve a 10% year-on-year revenue growth. This includes a 20% increase in the PTL segment and 8% growth in B2C express segment, with Ebitda margins likely to expand by 220 basis points year-on-year. Emkay Global maintained a 'BUY' rating with a target price of Rs 400, underscoring the positive outlook.

Conversely, TCI Express has been downgraded from 'Add' to 'Reduce' with a 26% reduction in its December 2025 target price to Rs 650. This company is expected to experience a 2% decline in Q4 revenue and a significant 28% reduction in EBITDA, driven by competitive pressures and a consumption slowdown. According to Emkay Global, "While TCIE’s asset-light business model continues to shield its profitability, it will need to focus on growth for us to turn constructive on the stock."

VRL Logistics is projected to see a 9% increase in realisations, contributing to a top-line growth of 10% year-on-year. Despite tepid volume growth, the company is expected to achieve 40% EBITDA and 84% PAT growth. Emkay Global remarked, "For VRL, we account for top-line growth of 10% YoY driven by uptick in realizations (9% YoY), while volumes remain tepid, it added."

Blue Dart Express is anticipated to experience a 12% increase in volume growth, although blended realisations are expected to decline by 2% year-on-year. The company's EBITDA margin is projected to expand by approximately 90 basis points sequentially, while it holds an 'ADD' rating with a target price of Rs 7,100.

The logistics sector faces varying challenges and opportunities. While firms like Delhivery and VRL showed promising growth and received optimistic ratings from Emkay Global, others like TCI Express need to strategise for improved growth amidst competitive pressures. This mixed scenario reflects broader industry trends as logistics companies adapt to changing market dynamics.