HAL, BEL, Astra Microwave, Data Patterns to gain from TPCR 2025, Sudarshan Chakra

InCred Equities, in its latest note on the aerospace and defence sector, said defence manufacturers such as Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Bharat Electronics (BEL), Astra Microwave, and Data Patterns are likely to be key beneficiaries of TPCR-2025 and the Sudarshan Chakra project.

The TPCR-2025 lists 457 items compared with 221 in TPCR-2018, with over 50 per cent now focused on electronics, electronic warfare (EW), and space. It looks to prioritise sub-systems over platforms and emphasises indigenisation, marking a clear shift to networked, software-defined, and electronic capabilities.

The Sudarshan Chakra project, scheduled for completion by 2035, requires an investment of at least Rs 4 lakh crore across air defence systems, radars, HAPS, directed-energy weapons (DEW), and space. HAL, BEL, BDL, Astra Microwave, and Data Patterns are expected to benefit the most from the electronics push under TPCR and Sudarshan Chakra.

“In the future, Indian defence will be digital, networked, and electronic. TPCR-2025 shows nearly half of all programs—224 out of 457—are in cyber systems, electronics, and EW,” the brokerage said. 

Among the four stocks, InCred covers HAL and BEL and has 'Buy' rating on the two stocks. It suggested a target of Rs 6,325 on HAL, saying the Tejas maker's order book is up at Rs 2.4 lakh crore and a Rs 1 lakh order pipeline supports revenue visibility.

A diversified backlog assures growth, InCred said adding that the Rs 15,000 crore capex over a period of five years would boost capacity. In the case of BEL, InCred Equities suggested a target of Rs 459. TPCR 2025 electronics push and a multimillion-dollar project pipeline ensured revenue visibility, InCred said.

"Operation Sindoor’s success + Atmanirbharta (DAC 2020) makes the company a key government-trusted indigenization & defence electronics partner," InCred said.

On TPCR-2025, InCred highlighted procurement plans for over 60,000 software-defined radios, 7,000–8,000 S-band satellite terminals, integrated EW suites, and AI-enabled systems for around 4,000 users.

TPCR-2025 also shifts focus to subsystems, with 86.9 per cent of programs targeting component-level work, creating opportunities for SMEs, tech start-ups, and a tiered domestic supplier base. This industrial deepening reduces reliance on large integrators and strengthens the domestic ecosystem.

India requires substantial investments in air and space defence systems to close operational gaps. InCred expects rapid rollout of AESA radar upgrades, distributed sensor-fusion, hardened C2 nodes, and integration of directed-energy weapons to counter swarms of loitering munitions and UAVs.

The Sudarshan Chakra program, with an estimated cost of R 4 lakh crore, plans layered area-defence systems (Rs 1.8 lakh crore), advanced ground and over-the-horizon sensing (Rs 1.4 lakh crore), space sensors and HAPS, DEW R&D, and hardened sensor-fusion/C2 infrastructure. When delivered, it will provide overlapping sensors across air, maritime, and space domains, resilient automated command-and-control, and cost-effective counter-swarm capabilities.