Senco Gold share price: Target upped post Q3 biz update; here's why

Antique Stock Broking maintained its 'Buy' rating on Senco Gold Ltd and raised its target price to Rs 600 from Rs 560 after the company reported strong December quarter performance, driven by a robust wedding season. The brokerage said Senco Gold delivered revenue growth of 51 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q3FY26, supported by healthy same-store sales growth and sustained momentum in diamond jewellery.

Antique noted that growth during the quarter was led by a strong wedding season, with retail revenue rising 49 per cent year on year and same-store sales growth of 39 per cent. For the first nine months of FY26, revenue growth stood at 31 per cent year on year, while same-store sales growth was 21 per cent. The brokerage said festive campaigns, new design launches and higher customer engagement during Dhanteras and Diwali supported demand, while part of the second quarter demand shifted into the festive and wedding season.

The brokerage highlighted that gold prices continued to rise during Q3FY26, with average increases of about 23 per cent quarter on quarter and 65 per cent year on year, leading to strong investment-led demand but relatively muted volume growth. Gold prices touched a record high of around Rs 1,40,000 per 10 grams during the quarter, compared with about Rs 1,17,000 per 10 grams in Q2FY26 and Rs 79,800 per 10 grams in Q3FY25.

Antique said demand for diamond jewellery remained strong, with sales value growth of 36 per cent YoY in Q3FY26 and 34 per cent growth over the first nine months of FY26. It believed sustained traction in studded jewellery could gradually support margins. The brokerage also viewed the company’s increasing focus on lightweight jewellery and budget-friendly offerings as a structural positive.

On the store expansion front, Antique noted that Senco opened four new showrooms during the quarter, taking the total store count to 196, including eight Sennes stores and two international showrooms. During the first nine months of FY26, the company launched 11 franchise stores and five company-owned stores. Management indicated that Senco remained on track to reach the milestone of 200 stores in FY26, with three to four additional stores expected in the March quarter, and said the expansion pipeline for the first half of the next financial year remained strong.

Following the strong operating performance, Antique said it raised its earnings estimates by 5 per cent to 15 per cent for FY26 to FY28E. The brokerage built in a revenue, Ebitda and earnings compound annual growth rate of 19 per cent, 26 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over FY25 to FY28E. It attributed this outlook to Senco’s strong positioning in eastern India, its focus on lightweight jewellery catering to a wider customer base, and the ongoing shift from unorganised to organised jewellery retail.