Sensex, Nifty prediction for Monday, Feb 23: Will US Supreme Court’s Trump tariff ruling trigger a rally? Key levels for next week trade

Domestic benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open higher on Monday, following a rally on Wall Street and a major reset in global trade dynamics. 

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange surged 320 points, or 1.25 per cent, to trade at 25,886, strongly hinting at a gap-up opening on Monday. 

Over the past five sessions, the BSE Sensex rose 0.2 per cent, ultimately closing Friday up 316.57 points, or 0.38 per cent, at 82,814.71. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 climbed 0.4 per cent for the week, adding 116.90 points, or 0.46 per cent, on Friday to finish at 25,571.25.

Trump Tariffs

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping Liberation Day tariffs. In response, Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing a proclamation imposing a temporary 10% tariff on goods entering the United States. 

This measure takes effect on February 24 and would last for 150 days to address international payment imbalances, the White House noted. White House officials also clarified on Saturday that India's tariff exposure would actually drop from 18 per cent to 10 per cent.

Wall Street

The upbeat mood was clearly reflected on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 jumped 0.69 per cent to 6,909.51, the Dow Jones gained 0.47 per cent to 49,625.97, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.90 per cent to 22,886.07.

Stock market outlook

While this creates short-term uncertainty for Indian exporters in sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems, and machinery, the measure is deemed less severe than previous proposals and allows for further negotiations, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. 

“From a market standpoint, this brings much-needed predictability. A rules-based approach to tariffs lowers policy uncertainty and reduces the risk of sudden escalation, something global markets generally respond to favorably,” said Gaurav Arora, Head of Research at Sahi.

Arora also noted that investors tend to discount uncertainty more than bad news, and this move addresses that concern to some extent.

However, Ponmudi said that Trump's stated intent to seek alternative legal routes for his trade policies could temper optimism and trigger intermittent phases of elevated volatility across global financial markets in the near term.

Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said that IT stocks faced persistent selling amid renewed concerns over AI-led disruption. "Traders should remain mindful of expiry-led volatility, adhere to disciplined stop-losses, and avoid excessive leverage," he noted. 

For fresh allocations, Mishra added, "Preference should remain for large-cap financials, energy, auto, and select metal counters."

Overall, while implementation details are still important, a more structured tariff regime could support global markets and reduce volatility, Arora added.

Key levels to watch for Sensex, Nifty

From a technical standpoint, Ponmudi said that the broader market charts reflect consolidation backed by underlying strength. 

For the 50-pack index, Ponmudi places immediate support at the 25,500–25,600 zone, with upside resistance mapped between 25,700 and 25,900. Mishra also noted that crucial support for the Nifty rests at 25,400, while the 25,800–26,000 zone remains a key resistance band. 

“A break below 25,400 level could trigger a fresh decline toward 25,100, which corresponds to the gap area on the daily chart,” Mishra said.

For the Bank Nifty, Ponmudi expects it to advance toward 61,500–62,000 as long as the 60,500–60,700 support base holds. 

For Sensex, Ponmudi said “Immediate downside protection is seen at 82,000–81,800 in case volatility resurfaces, while upside resistance is positioned at 83,500–84,000, aligning with prior highs and the upper channel boundary. Heavyweight participation remains supportive, although near-term caution persists due to global uncertainties.”

“The broader trend remains constructive, supporting selective accumulation on pullbacks while staying alert to global developments, earnings outcomes, and macro triggers,” Ponmudi added.