Stock market, Economic Survey 2026: Why Sensex, Nifty are falling today

Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty were trading lower on Thursday, as investors awaited the Economic Survey 2026 for cues on what Budget 2026 may look like on February 1. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged in its policy review, along with the rupee tumbling to a record low of Rs 92, weighed on market sentiment. Investors chose to ignore positive reports on India-US trade deal negotiations.  

At 10.20 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 81,767.69, down 576.99 points, or 0.70 per cent. The Nifty stood at 25,203.50, down 139.25 points, or 0.55 per cent. A total of 2,322 BSE-listed stocks declined, while 1,329 advanced. As many as 116 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Economic Survey 2026
Attention today is firmly on the Economic Survey 2025–26 at 11 am, which will guide expectations for the Union Budget on February 1, especially around capex, fiscal discipline, and policy support for infrastructure, defence, and manufacturing, said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

"Cooling India VIX, stable domestic macros, and banking sector strength offer downside support, keeping trade largely range-bound with selective stock-specific action," he said.

US Fed rate 
The Federal Reserve has kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 per cent, reflecting a balanced view of inflation and employment risks. This pause follows three rate cuts in late 2025. 

"Markets are not factoring in any rate cut until Powell’s term ends in May. We believe that the markets would wait for the announcement of the new Fed chairman to reassess how long the current “tactical pause” by the Fed will continue," JM Financial said.

In his post-meeting remarks, Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy has entered 2026 on a strong footing, with steady growth, improving job market indicators, and inflation that, although somewhat high, does not pose an immediate threat requiring further easing, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Securities.

"Globally, this decision may lead to slight declines in equity markets as investors adjust to the expectation of no immediate rate cuts, while bolstering the U.S. dollar. In India, indices like the Nifty and Sensex may consolidate as foreign investors remain cautious," he said.

Rupee hits 92
The domestic currency hit the 92-mark in Thursday's trade amid weak sentiment in the equity market. Rising demand for dollar and FPI selling also led to the currency's fall today.  At the open, the rupee slipped to 92 mark against the greenback, against its previous record low of 91.96 hit last week. With today's fall, the currency has slipped 2.25% this year. 

Union Budget 2026
Investors also turned cautious ahead of Union Budget.  JM Financial expects the Budget announcements to be inward-looking and focus on demand revival, supply chain self-reliance and macro stability. "On the taxation side, focus is likely to be on improving the tax base as the fiscal space for tax incentives narrows," it said.