Varun Beverages shares log first loss in nine years, profit CAGR at 41%; buy, sell or hold?

Shares of Varun Beverages logged their first annual loss in nine years in 2025. The multibagger stock slipped 23.14% in last year compared to a loss of 16.55% in 2016. Since 2016, the stock of the PepsiCo bottler logged annual gains in double digits. However, rising competition in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and beverage sectors, the potential initial public offering (IPO) of Coca-Cola Beverages India business, high operating costs and the stock's overvaluation concerns brought Varun Beverages under intense selling pressure in 2025. 

The multibagger stock is stuck in bear grip for two years with a loss of 0.5%. The stock is down 18% in a year. However, Varun Beverages shares rose 482% in five years. The company also logged a profit Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 41% in five years

In the current session, Varun Beverages stock rose 3% to Rs 485.85 against the previous close of Rs 469.60. A total of 3.26 lakh shares of the firm changed hands, amounting to a turnover of  Rs 15.62 crore. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 1.72 lakh crore. Later, the stock ended 2.07% higher at Rs 509.85 on BSE.

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Varun Beverages stands at 65.1, signaling the stock is trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone.

Varun Beverages shares are trading higher than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.

Global brokerage Jefferies has a price target of Rs 600 on the stock. The brokerage believes the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 45 days. 

The brokerage is optimistic on the outlook of the firm in 2026. 

"We think management commentary during 4QC25 earnings could suggest an optimistic 2026 outlook for the India business. This, along with management's focus on portfolio expansion in existing markets, including the opportunity for expansion into the business of RTD & Alcoholic Beverages, augurs well for medium-term growth and should support stock outperformance," said Jefferies. 

"VBL currently trades at 47x 12-month forward P/E on FactSet consensus estimates, lower than its 3-year historical average of 54x. We estimate that there is about an 80%+ (or "highly likely") probability for the scenario," it added.

Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi said, "Support will be at Rs 490 and resistance at Rs 515. A decisive move above the Rs 515 level may trigger a further upside of Rs 525. The expected trading range will be between Rs 490 and Rs 525 for the short-term."

Another brokerage Emkay Global has a price target of Rs 615 on the Varun Beverages stock. 

"VBL’s solid balance sheet (net debt-free vs ~1.0x D/E historically) allows it to pursue growth, presenting scope to capture such value accretive opportunities. We reiterate BUY on VBL while revising up our TP (Dec 26E) by 7% to Rs 615 (vs Sep-26E TP of Rs 575 earlier), given consistent outperformance vs FMCG peers and value creation in international geographies," said Emkay. 

Varun Beverages is a beverage company. It operates franchisee of PepsiCo. The company produces and distributes a range of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), as well as a large selection of non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), including packaged drinking water sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.