Vedanta shares on a roll: What's powering the rally in metal stock?

Shares of Vedanta are on a roll in the last one month, thanks to a rally in the prices of global commodity such as Silver, Zinc, Aluminium and Copper. These commodities are a part of Vedanta's business. The rally in commodity prices is also powered by weakness in dollar and a mismatch in global demand and supply of the precious metals. 

The prospects of value unlocking, due to the ongoing demerger process has also led to positive sentiment around the stock. The demerger is likely to be completed by March 2026. Shareholders and creditors of Vedanta have approved splitting the company into five independent entities. Every Vedanta shareholder is expected to receive 1 share in each of the demerged business units.

Coming back to the stock, it has gained in six out of the last seven trading sessions.

The metal major stock ended 6% higher at Rs 675.70 on Wednesday against the previous close of Rs 637.10. Market cap of the firm rose to Rs 2.64 lakh crore. A total of 28.69 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 192.10 crore. Earlier, the stock hit a record high of Rs 679.40 on BSE. 

The metal major's shares are trading higher than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages. 

Vedanta stock is trading in overbought zone with its RSI rising to 81.2

The stock has risen 148% in two years and gained 283.27% in five years. 

Brokerage firm Nuvama has a share price target of Rs 806 on the metal stock. 

Nuvama expects Vedanta's EBITDA in financial year 2027 to reach Rs 74,000 crore. The brokerage has raised its estimates for the next two years by 17% and 8% respectively to factor in the higher commodity prices, cost reduction in aluminium backed by volume growth in international zinc and power. EBITDA of the metal firm is likely to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate of 20% over financial year 2025-2028.

The report also says that "strong commodity prices, cost reduction along with volume growth further propelled our earlier investment thesis."

Meanwhile, brokerage Systematix has a price target of Rs 577 on the stock with a buy call. According to the brokerage, Vedanta is on track to witness margin expansion and higher profitability.

The brokerage believes that performance of aluminum, zinc, and power segment would help offset weaker performance of the oil and gas segment
in the December 2025 quarter earnings. Key things to monitor are demerger updates, expansion plans, and commissioning timeline. The firm is slated for a strong quarter led by higher volumes and base metal prices from top contributing segments, according to the brokerage. 

Drumil Vithlani, Technical Analyst at Bonanza, said Vedanta stock is approaching the Rs 690–700 resistance zone, where some short-term profit booking may emerge. 

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Securities said, "Vedanta is in a strong uptrend across all time frames, forming a series of higher tops and bottoms. The stock is well placed above its 20, 50,100 and 200-day SMA, and these averages are also inching up along with rising prices, which reconfirms a bullish trend. The monthly 'band Bollinger' buy signals signify the increased momentum. The weekly and monthly strength RSI is in positive territory, which signals rising strength."