Vodafone Idea share price targets as telecom operator unveils Rs 45,000 cr capex plan 

Telecom analysts largely sees limited upside potential in Vodafone Idea Ltd (Vi) following its in-line December quarter results and Rs 45,000 crore capex plan for the next three years. Analysts said a fall in the subscriber base offset ARPU growth during the quarter. While the moratorium from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) provided Vi with much-needed breathing space, they said the telecom opeator is still not completely out of the woods. 

Nuvama Institutional Equities said Vi has got a much needed respite with the recently awarded 10-year moratorium on AGR dues. Vi now aims to raise debt in order to continue on its capex plans and stem the subscriber losses, the brokerage said.

"We are tweaking FY26E/27 Ebitda estimates lower by 4.8 per cent/ 5.8 per cent as we push out tariff hike from FY26E to FY27E. We roll forward valuation to 11 times FY28E EV/Ebitda; retain ‘Hold’ with a target of Rs 10.50 (earlier Rs 10), Nuvama said.

Vodafone Idea’s management, during its analyst meet, unveiled an Rs 45,000 crore capex plan for the next three years, aimed at reaching parity with peers on 4G network coverage in 17 priority circles and roll out seamless 5G across urban markets to drive consistent subscriber additions, with 70 per cent of the capex likely on tower addition. 

It is also looking at double-digit revenue growth and tripling of cash Ebitda to Rs 30,000 crore by FY29. 

Given peers’ superior free cash flow (FCF) generation and offerings, MOFSL believes retaining its current subscriber market share itself would prove to be a tall ask for Vi. 

"We reiterate our Neutral rating on Vi with a revised target price of Rs 10 (earlier
Rs 11), based on DCF implied 13 times FY28E EV/Ebitda, implies 21.5 times FY28E pre IND AS Ebitda, which is at a significant premium to Vi’s larger peers," MOFSL said.

JM Financial said it has cut Vodafone Idea's FY26-FY28 revenue and Ebitda estimates by 8-16 per cent, due to change in assumption of the next tariff hike while aligning with 9MFY26 results. It revised its target price to Rs 11 per share and maintained 'ADD' rating on Vi.