'What it will take for India to be a 4 am country': Shankar Sharma on crisis, copper, and Chile

Ace investor Shankar Sharma believes the path to India's true economic resurgence may lie not in triumph, but in turmoil. Speaking on the Exploring Minds podcast, Sharma said, “You go from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m. because of a crisis.” According to him, it’s only through economic distress—be it a slowdown, fiscal deficit, or industrial stagnation—that India will be jolted into the kind of transformation that builds global competitiveness.

Sharma is known for his contrarian bets, and true to form, he's not chasing trending themes like solar or AI. “I have no idea what solar is going to do or what AI is going to do. I’m not a venture capitalist,” he said. Instead, Sharma prefers betting on entire countries that have fallen out of favor but show the potential for revival. “I haven't just bought copper. I’ve gone and bought Chile. Chile is the largest producer of copper. If copper does well, the knockoff effect on the country’s economy will be massive.”

He argues that investing in troubled yet fundamentally sound economies can be more rewarding than chasing speculative tech plays. “I buy existing companies or existing countries that have gone into trouble, which had a decent past. Many things can go wrong—macro, government, bad luck—but when they turn, the upside is real.”

He applies the same logic to his “4 a.m.” investing framework, which he says is often misunderstood. “It’s not about sunrise industries. It’s about things on which the sun has already set but are now reviving,” Sharma explained. “Don’t confuse sunrise industries with 4 a.m. investing—they’re completely different things.”

When asked what it would take for India to become a “4 a.m. country,” Sharma didn’t mince words: “A crisis.” He believes Indians are “too self-satisfied and self-congratulatory,” and that only a serious wake-up call—economic or otherwise—will push the country into a globally competitive gear.

Yet he cautions that not all who fall will rise. “Not all 4 a.m. will become 10 a.m.—far from it,” he warned.