Won’t be surprised if Nifty touches 30,000 by H1 2026: Deven Choksey

Market veteran Deven Choksey on Monday said the stock market mood is quite upbeat and buoyant, looking a little promising than before. He said 30,000 level on Nifty by the first half of 2026 is a possibility, and the market looks set for a catch-up. 

In an exclusive interview with Business Today, the MD of Managing Director of DRChoksey FinServ said the second quarter earnings season has been extremely kind. The volume growth has remained selectively higher in some of the consumer pockets. Margins have, by and large, remained higher in most of the cases, including in the commodity segment, Choksey said.

He sees silver lining here. "If cost structure is lower, margin is better. And along with that, from the third quarter onwards, when the consumption level starts increasing, generally the second half of the financial year, is expected to see higher amount of spending by the consumer." 

"Also because of the fact that you have got the direct tax savings of up to Rs 12 lakh per individual and also reduction in the GST that has actually started increasing the consumption in various items. We expect to see the combined effect of both in the second half of the financial year and that is  why volume rate growth along with improvement in margins experienced in the first half is likely to continue," Choksey said in a BT TV interview.

The expert said the second half of financial year is expected to do much better than what the first half has done in this financial year and likely to see the growth rate continuing in 2026-27 financial year.

The market will not lag behind, Choksey said as he bets on earnings growth continuity. He said the market will soon catch up and he would not be surprised if one sees Nifty at 30,000 in the first half of the calendar 2026 itself.

"So, let us wait and see, but things are looking quite promising from current figures.

Choksey said it is slightly perplexing that rupee has depreciated even as the dollar index is quoting low and the greenback does not look strong.

"But luckily the fact remains that I think the market is driven by the sentiment at this point of time and because as you rightly pointed out, the FTA is not signed with America as a result of which tariff related issues have actually impacted the amount of activity in the country today," he said.

Choksey said it is a matter of time, as the US has been putting the pressure on for signing the FTA with most of the countries and so is the situation with India.

"I believe that I think this particular agreement once it is completed, probably I think that will be out of way and if I am right in that particular analysis, we might see a significant amount of rupee appreciation from a panic level. I see rupee somewhere around 87 or so," he said.

The kind of interest rate reduction in India, and the earning growth prospects going higher-- and also the US market likely to correct, the expert sees some amount of money is coming out of the US market could possibly find its way into emerging markets such as India.

"In my viewpoint, I think the case for rupee becoming 87 is, I think, probably right at this point of time. Maybe before that interest rate will panic bottom, and that's where probably I think money is counting on."