Housing market in 2026: Waiting for a crash could cost first-time buyers more in India. Here's why

For years, first-time homebuyers across India have been stuck in a familiar loop — waiting for a long-promised real estate “crash” before taking the plunge. But amid persistently high property prices and uneven growth across cities, financial experts warn that the strategy of waiting for a broad market correction may no longer hold up in 2026. 

Chartered Accountant and financial educator Nitin Kaushik recently flagged this shift in a post on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that India’s real estate story is no longer about hype cycles or city-wide averages, but about micro-markets driven by infrastructure. 

“If you’re waiting for a real estate ‘crash’ to buy your first home, you might be looking at the wrong map,” Kaushik wrote, adding that the idea of an average 5% annual growth masks what is actually happening on the ground. 

From ‘pin codes’ to infra corridors 

According to Kaushik, the traditional approach of buying property based on a well-known pin code is giving way to a more targeted strategy — following new roads, metro lines, airports and office clusters. 

He points to airport-led development as a prime example. Areas around the upcoming Navi Mumbai International Airport and Jewar Airport in Noida have seen sharp price appreciation, with locations such as Panvel and the Yamuna Expressway recording 15-20% growth, driven by job creation and commercial activity rather than speculative demand. 

Similarly, established IT corridors are no longer the sole growth engines in cities like Bengaluru. “The focus has shifted north,” Kaushik notes, citing Hebbal and Devanahalli as outperformers due to improved connectivity and planned infrastructure. In Gurugram, the Dwarka Expressway — once delayed and uncertain — has now translated into reality, pushing around 19% year-on-year price growth in nearby residential projects. 

Tier-2 cities step into spotlight 

For buyers priced out of major metros, Tier-2 cities are emerging as viable alternatives. Cities such as Lucknow, Indore and Nagpur are witnessing rising demand, lower entry costs and rental yields touching 6–7%, significantly higher than Mumbai’s sub-3% average. 

The surge, experts say, is being fuelled by decentralised job growth, better urban planning and migration patterns that no longer revolve solely around Delhi, Mumbai or Bengaluru. 

Two-speed housing market 

Kaushik also highlights a growing divide within the housing market itself. In 2026, real estate is no longer a passive “buy and forget” investment. Instead, it has become a two-speed market, sharply separating quality projects from the rest. 

“A flat in a gated community by a Grade-A builder in a growth corridor is appreciating at 12-14%, while cheaper standalone buildings nearby struggle to cross 4%,” he noted. 

Buyers, he added, are increasingly ignoring discounts offered by lesser-known developers, choosing brand trust, project execution and long-term livability over headline pricing. As a result, branded projects are selling quickly, while poorly planned developments remain unsold. 

Buy for the exit, Not just the rent 

Another key shift is the changing investment logic. With rental yields lagging appreciation in most metros, Kaushik argues that buyers today are effectively purchasing for future exit value, not immediate rental income. 

“In 2026, you don’t buy for the rent; you buy for the exit price,” he said, stressing that following city-wide averages often leads to average — or disappointing — returns. 

While concerns about affordability remain valid, experts increasingly caution that waiting for a uniform nationwide correction may mean missing out on high-growth pockets already becoming unaffordable. 

“Real estate today is a game of micro-markets,” Kaushik concluded. “If you follow the metro lines, expressways and new office clusters, the math changes completely.”