Budget 2026, metals & mining stocks: Why Tata Steel, Hindustan Copper, Vedanta & Hind Zinc are in focus

Metals & mining sector has a slew of expectations from the forthcoming Union Budget 2026. The first is an increase in basic customs duty across all aluminum products to uniform 15 per cent from current 2.5-10 per cent. Second relates to a reduction in customs duty on calcined pet coke, raw pet coke, aluminum fluoride and caustic soda. Besides, Indian Steel Association (ISA) has advocated reducing or removing of the 2.5 per cent basic customs duty on coking coal. Also, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) has urged the government to remove export duties on low-grade iron ore. Policy-related push for critical minerals is also on investor radar. 

If customs duty on aluminium is increased, Antique Stock Broking said it should help improve pricing power and profitability of domestic aluminum players such as Nalco, Hindalco, Vedanta. Similarly, any cut in pet coke may lower aluminum cost of production for the three stocks, it added.

Any reduction in the 2.5 per cent basic customs duty on coking coal may reduce cost of production for steel players such as Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel and SAIL. Export duty removal low grade iron ores may help realisation of low grade iron ore fines and is seen beneficiary for NMDC. 

Axis Securities said Budget 2026 is expected to unveil a new policy to slash import reliance by boosting domestic production of silver, copper, and zinc. The focus will be on increasing private sector participation in mining and processing, alongside incentives to improve silver recovery as a by-product to support the "Make in India" initiative

Regarding Rare Earth Elements (REE), it noted that the government aims to build a long-ten domestic ecosystem to secure supply chains for high-tech industries like EVs and electronics. 

"Since REE mining is a complex, multi-year process, the Budget may introduce initial incentives for prospecting and refining to reduce long-term dependence on global suppliers," it said.

Meanwhile, there are also hopes the government may impose 3 per cent safeguard duty on copper cathode, rod, wire, and tube imports irrespective of FTA status Correction of Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) under India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to curb import surge. Axis Securities sees Budget 2026 to be positive for Tata Steel, Nalco, Hindalco Ltd, SAIL, Hindustan Zinc and Hindustan Copper.  

Emkay Global said any policy-related push for critical minerals medium-term positive for India’s metals and mining ecosystem such as GMDC and Midwest Ltd.