Inspired by INDI-Alliance? How Trump could win US elections by reversing the strategy of opposition in India

In the recent 2024 Indian General Elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's NDA alliance managed to secure a majority despite losing seats in key swing states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Maharashtra. This was primarily due to the consolidation of votes from various communities and a large coalition of opposition parties (INDI-Alliance), which posed a challenge for Modi. Nonetheless, the overall majority of the NDA alliance, ensured Modi's third term as Prime Minister.

In contrast, former US President Donald Trump would be looking to leverage a completely opposite strategy (of INDI-Alliance) to secure victory in the upcoming US Presidential Elections. While many perceive the race as a straightforward contest between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden, the entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) as an Independent candidate complicates the scenario. RFK, the nephew of the assassinated former President John F. Kennedy, initially sought the Democratic nomination. However, feeling neglected by the party which has firmly backed Biden, RFK decided to run as an Independent.

This development spells trouble for Biden, as RFK's candidacy is expected to siphon votes from Democrat voters who are unwilling to endure another term under Biden but are also reluctant to support Trump. Unlike the successful voter consolidation seen in India, this three-way race could split the Democratic vote, thereby benefiting Trump. Biden, already trailing in polls, faces a significant threat from RFK’s appeal to his voter base.

The Democratic Party is acutely aware of this risk and has begun its alleged weaponisation program of justice system, this time against RFK, in addition to their actions against Donald Trump. The Nevada Democratic Party is spearheading efforts to keep Kennedy off the presidential ballot, arguing that his affiliation with other political parties violates state requirements for independent candidates. Should this lawsuit succeed, it could serve as a blueprint for similar actions in other states with comparable laws.

Democrats filed a similar case against Trump in an attempt to remove him from the ballot, but the Supreme Court later ruled in Trump's favour, permitting him to continue his candidacy. Simultaneously, Trump faces another legal battles of his own, pursued by a Democratic-backed New York prosecutor and judge in a case involving hush money payments to adult star Stormy Daniels. What was initially a misdemeanor according to US laws, has been escalated to 34 felony counts, with the specific charges remaining undisclosed to the public—a unique circumstance in US legal history.

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, third-party candidates are gaining notable support, with RFK receiving 9%, Cornel West 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%. In a direct matchup, Trump leads Biden with 49% to 40%, with 7% of voters opting for other candidates and 4% undecided.

Trump’s strategy hinges on more Democrats shifting their support to RFK, thereby diluting Biden’s voter base and increasing Trump's chances of winning with a consolidated Republican vote. RFK has been garnering support among Democrat voters who believe Joe Biden is unfit to run for another term due to concerns about his declining mental health. Biden's purported weaponisation of the justice system is also being widely criticised by many Americans, including influential figures on Wall Street. As the election approaches, the dynamics between these three candidates will significantly shape the outcome.