Former SEBI chief explains why recession may not hit India hard

The Indian economy is shaping up in a positive way and all structural reforms are opening up now, former SEBI and LIC chairman G N Bajpai said on Sunday. 

He said the likely recession will impact the country very marginally. "A likely recession will impact India, but very marginally, because our exports are not that much affected. Indian economy is majorly driven by domestic factors," he said at the second leg of the Business Today Golf event of the 2022-23 season.

This comes after global consultancy firm EY announced its growth projection for India and estimated Indian economy will reach a GDP size of $26 trillion by 2047, the 100th year of India’s independence. The per capita income is expected to increase to $15,000, putting the country among the ranks of developed economies, said EY.

With strong services exports at $254.5 billion in 2021-22, India enjoys a strong foothold, especially in the IT and BPO services exports, the report titled "India@100: Realising the potential of a $26 trillion economy" highlighted. 

There is now an opportunity for the country to seize a higher share of transformational and more complex, expertise-based services to grow faster in the IT services sector, said EY.

Talking about the upcoming Union Budget, Bajpai said that the current political executives have been conducting themselves very responsibly in the matter of fiscal deficit. Notwithstanding the fact that the general election is around the corner, he said, this will continue even moving forward. "Fortunately for them, there is a good growth in the revenues so they have a levy to keep pushing infrastructure investments," he added.

The former LIC chief also said that India's insurance penetration is bound to increase exponentially. "The economy is doing well and people have more money to put into an investment," he said. 

"The current Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) chairman Debashish Panda is of a very progressive mind. He has been trying to liberalise in order to help grow the industry fast," Bajpai said.

Speaking at the BT Golf event, he also underlined how the game helps him in his professional life. "Golf is a mind game and involves great management," he said, adding that it's all about thinking, deciding what needs to be done, and considering the "strokes" accordingly.

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