Sugar Prices May Hit $25: El Niño, E20 Demand & Tight Supply Fuel Fresh Rally Ahead

Sugar prices could remain firm as weather risks, lower production and rising ethanol demand tighten the global supply outlook. Kunal Shah, Head of Commodity Research, Nirmal Bang, expects international sugar prices to potentially rise toward $24–25 per pound from around $17.50–18. A strong El Niño could hurt production in Brazil and India, while India’s E20 blending mandate is increasing ethanol demand and putting further pressure on sugar availability. With supply already tight, the combination of lower output and stronger demand could support prices further. Investors are closely watching weather patterns, production estimates and policy changes across major sugar-producing countries for the next move.