After RBI’s Pause, Is A Rate Cut Coming In December? | Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA

ICRA’s Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, analyses the Reserve Bank of India’s latest monetary policy decision, calling it a “very dovish pause”. She explains why the MPC chose to hold rates despite inflation easing due to GST rationalisation, and why further rate cuts may be limited this year. Nayar also highlights key risks to India’s growth outlook, including slowing government capital expenditure, the impact of US tariffs on exports, and weaker Q2 corporate tax data. With GDP growth expected to moderate after a strong Q1, she forecasts challenges ahead, while remaining aligned with the MPC’s broader H2 projections.