Food Prices Drop, Gold Rises | RBI Governor Warns Of Q4 Spike In Inflation

India’s inflation trackers are battling a new villain – Gold! Though retail inflation touched a 77-month low of 2.1% in June 2025, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline, the precious yellow metal is driving prices up. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra attributed the fall in retail prices to easing food inflation, good monsoon progress, and strong agricultural output. However, the RBI projects a gradual rise in inflation by Q4, driven by base effects and demand-side pressures. Core inflation remains sticky due to gold price surges. The CPI forecast for 2025–26 is now set at 3.1%, with Q4 expected to touch 4.4%. What does this mean for consumers and policy rates? Full breakdown here.