After brief pause, IMD sees monsoon's strong comeback with rain over most of India by June 18

After going dormant for over two weeks, the southwest monsoon is gearing up for a vigorous return. By June 18, it’s set to drench most of Central and East India and then push into much of Northwest India — including Delhi — by June 25. The timing couldn’t be better. North India has been gripped by a punishing heatwave, and relief is now in sight.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the heatwave would likely abate across most of North India within the next two days, with maximum temperatures expected to drop by 2–3°C.

Rainfall is expected to be above normal across most of the country during the week ending June 19 — except in the South Peninsular region, which could see below-normal precipitation, according to the IMD.

The stalled monsoon, which had an early onset this year, has pushed the nationwide rainfall deficit to 34 per cent as of now, up from 25 per cent recorded on June 9.

“No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely over Northwest and Central India during the next two to three days, followed by a gradual fall of 2–4°C,” the IMD said. “In East India, no major change is expected in maximum temperatures over the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual drop of 2–3°C over the subsequent four days.”

The week starting June 19 is expected to bring cooler conditions to Northwest India, with a noticeable drop in maximum temperatures compared to the previous week.

The department has also revised its all-India monsoon forecast for the June-September season to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), slightly up from the 105 per cent it had projected in April. Rainfall for June alone is expected to exceed 108 per cent of the LPA.

The LPA for seasonal rainfall in India, based on the 1971–2020 period, is 87 centimetres, with a forecast margin of error of ±4 per cent.

Regionally, the monsoon is projected to be normal to above normal across most parts of the country, with the exception of the Northeast and parts of Bihar. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are likely to see below-normal rainfall this season.