‘American monkey has become billi’: Kotak AMC's Nilesh Shah gives a witty Panchatantra twist to India’s geopolitics

Kotak Mahindra AMC Managing Director Nilesh Shah in a recent event described India’s geopolitics with a witty metaphor using the ancient fable of the two cats and a monkey from Panchatantra. The stories of Panchatantra are known for their moral and philosophical teachings conveyed through animal characters.

In the two cats and a monkey story, the two cats who are friends find a piece of food and squabble over who gets the bigger share. A cunning monkey observes them and offers to help divide the food fairly. The monkey pretends to be impartial, using scales to divide the food, but keeps taking bites from the larger piece to "balance" it. The cats, wary of each other, don't object. Eventually, the monkey eats the entire piece, leaving the cats with nothing. The moral of the story is that disagreements can allow a third party to benefit.

In a light-hearted note, Shah used the cats and monkey story to flag how India dealt with the US in the past versus how it deals with it now.

“You have heard Panchatantra ki katha (story) about two billis (cats) and one bandar (monkey). Two billies get one roti and then bandar eats it. In geopolitics, we were normally the billi (cat). For example, we were buying oil from Iran. Iran is our closest neighbour who can supply oil. Logistics cost was very low. They were selling to us in rupees. They were giving us 6-month credit.”

“Fifteen years back they were putting that money in UCO Bank, not today's UCO Bank. 15 years’ back UCO Bank. And those rupees were utilised to purchase things from us. And you know when people trade with Indians what do we do with them. Isse acchi roti apne ko kaha milti. And then an American monkey came and said ‘sorry, we are putting sanctions on Iran. We said ‘sure, please take my roti, we'll go and import oil in dollar without any credit; I'll pay a higher price but I'll honour your sanction.’”

Citing the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Shah noted that India’s current geopolitics has changed dramatically where it’s not doing what the US is telling it to do.

“Now we have transited to become Panchatantra ka monkey. This time when the US put sanction on Russia, we said: ‘sorry, we'll buy oil wherever it is available and wherever it is convenient to us. We took Russian billi’s roti. Cheaper oil on credit, in rupee also. Then we went to America and said we want to manufacture fighter jets, can you give your engine technology? And if not you, I'll go to France. American monkey has become billi and gave us their roti.”

While giving a perspective on how India has changed over the years, Shah said that global investors have to decide where they want to put their money – in a cheap or a performing market.

“What will global investors do? Will they buy sasta or a cheap market or will they buy sundar or performing market? If people want to buy sundar cheez or a performing market, India is the place. Every year it has delivered positive return. Despite the correction, it is trading at an all-time high level. But there is a price to buy sundar cheez, we are expensive. If investor wants to go to buy cheap thing, there's a whole range of it available,” he said.

He mentioned that cheaper markets such as China and Russia have disappointed investors in recent years. 

“You can buy China [market] at 1/3rd valuation of India, you can buy Russia at 1/8th valuation of India. But mind you, in China for last three decades investors have made no return. In Russia, people haven't made money for last almost 17 years. If you are an investor where will you put your money? Cheap or performing market? Our feeling is that a lot will depend upon whether China Russia Brazil kind of cheap market stop scoring self-goal and they correct themselves. We have to pray to God that they should continue to make self-goals so that our line continues to look bigger and we can continue to get higher valuation.”