Gaurav Gogoi in trouble? Axis My India predicts tough contest in Jorhat

Congress' Gaurav Gogoi seems to be treading in tough waters as his contendor Topon Kumar Gogoi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has given a strong fight in the blue-eyed seat. In this fight, the BJP is having a slight edge over Congress, as per India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll.

Gaurav Gogoi, the former Congress MP from Kaliabor, switched to Jorhat after the recent delimitation exercise in Assam. Topon Kumar Gogoi is also the incumbent BJP MP from Assam.

"There is a close fight, tough fight. But in [the] tough fight, BJP seems to be having a little edge," Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta said. Jorhat has a significant Ahom population, and both the candidates belong to the dominant community. 

Post delimitation exercise, the Lok Sabha seat has 10 Assembly segments-- Sonari, Mahmara, Demow, Sibsagar, Jorhat, Majuli (ST), Nazira, Teok, Mariani, and Titabar. As a result of the delimitation exercise, the three Muslim-dominated areas of the Kaliabor constituency were added to Nowgong. The Kaliabor seat was renamed as Kaziranga. 

Jorhat has been an extremely interesting seat to watch in the recently concluded Lok Sabha Elections 2024. The seat saw a prestige battle unfold between the Congress and the BJP. 

Late Tarun Gogoi, former Assam CM and Gaurav Gogoi's father, won from the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat as the Titabar Assembly seat which comes under Jorhat. Gaurav Gogoi had to switch to Jorhat not only due to the delimitation exercise but also because he could not get Nowgong.

Nowgong is considered a rather safe seat for the grand old Congress due to large Muslim population but sitting MP Pradyut Bardoloi retained the seat for himself. 

Assam Lok Sabha Exit Poll Results 2024

Overall, the incumbent BJP has the edge as the party is likely to win 9-11 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, is unlikely to make a comeback in the state despite intensive campaigning by heavyweights like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

The grand old party is likely to win only 2-4 seats in the northeastern state whereas others are expected to bag 0-2 seats. Today's Chanakya predicted 12 seats for the NDA and one each for the Congress and others. ABP News C-Voter, on the other hand, gave 10-12 seats to the BJP and 2-4 to the Congress. 

The NDA is likely to get 10-12 seats in Assam whereas Congress and the others are likely to get 0-2 seats each in the northeastern state, as per Matrize exit poll.