Trouble brews in Mahagathbandhan? Congress may lose key 2020 seats ahead of Bihar polls: Report

Not all is well within the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan ahead of the Bihar assembly elections 2025. The negotiations between the RJD and the Congress over seat-sharing for the Bihar assembly elections seem to be on a sticky wicket at present. 

The Congress has been pushing for the same number of seats that it contested in the 2020 assembly elections — 70 out of the total 243 assembly seats — but the RJD is not very keen on the same, The Indian Express reported, citing sources.The RJD does not want to give more than 50-55 seats to the Congress and a deal might eventually be reached with the grand old party getting 58-60 seats.

It is not just the grand old party's performance in the 2020 polls, but also newer allies that are causing challenges. In the 2020 assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan alliance included the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI and CPI(M). 

While the RJD fought on 144 seats, the Congress fought in 70 seats, and the CPI(ML), CPI and CPI(M) got 19, 6, and 4 seats, respectively. The RJD emerged as the single largest party by winning 75 out of the 144 seats it contested. Congress, on the other hand, could win only 19 out of the total 70 seats it fought on. 

Among the other allies, the CPI(ML) had the best strike rate by winning 12 of its 19 seats. Moreover, a senior RJD leader said that this time, there are more allies in the Mahagathbandhan — Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Pashupati Kumar Paras-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) — that have to be accommodated. 

"We have tried to reason with the Congress that, as the second largest partner, it has to share the burden. There is an understanding developing and hopefully things will be concluded soon to everyone's satisfaction," the leader was quoted as saying by the publication. 

Given its performance in 2020 and the rise in vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, RJD wants to retain most of the seats it contested in the previous polls and would ideally want to contest 140 seats. 

“We would be happy if the Congress accepted 50 seats. But we will accommodate to whatever extent possible. Most likely, a deal should be reached on 58-60 seats for the Congress,” another RJD leader said.

While Sahni has been pushing for 60 seats for his VIP, the alliance is unlikely to give more than 12 seats to the party. The VIP has a significant support base in Bihar's Mallah community. When it was a part of the NDA in 2020, the VIP fought on 11 seats and won 4. 

Pashupati Paras is also likely to get 2-3 seats, as per sources. Since they performed well in 2020, the Left parties are also pressuring the Mahagathbandhan leadership to increase their share.