Bihar exit poll 2025: Axis-My India predicts another term for NDA, Mahagathbandhan misses again

Voting for both phases of the Bihar assembly elections is over as a total of 7.43 crore voters exercised their right to franchise on November 6 and 11. The counting of votes will take place, and the results will be declared on November 14, 2025. 

As per the Axis-My India exit poll, the ruling alliance is likely to secure a clear majority. The NDA is likely to win on 121-141 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure victory on around 98-118 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), on the other hand, is likely to get only 0-2 seats, whereas others are expected to win 1-7 seats.

The exit poll gave a vote share of 43 per cent to the NDA and 41 per cent to the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll also gave a 4 per cent vote share to Jan Suraaj and 12 per cent to others.

Bihar assembly elections 2025: What other exit polls are saying?

Polling agency	NDA	Mahagathbandhan	Jan Suraaj Party	Others
Axis-My India	121-141	98-118	0-2	1-7
Today's Chanakya	160 (+/-12)	77 (+/12 seats)	NA	6 (+/-3 seats)
People's Insight	133-148	87-102	0-2	3-6
Peoples Pulse	133-159	75-101	0-5	2-8
MATRIZE-IANS	147-167	70-90	NA	2-6
NDTV Poll of Polls	148	88	2	5
ABP News	147-167	70-90	NA	2-6
Times Now-JVC	135-150	88-103	NA	3-7
Dainik Bhaskar	145-160	73-91	0	5-10
Chanakya Strategies	130-138	100-108	NA	3-5
P-Marq	147-167	80-98	1-4	0-3
Polstrat	133-148	87-102	NA	3-5
DV Research	137-152	83-98	0-4	NA

Bihar assembly elections: This pollster predicted a clean sweep for the NDA

Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, said that the NDA is likely to win 160 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan may bag 77 seats to become the distant second, with a margin of 12 seats on either side. Others, however, are likely to win on 6 seats, with a margin of 3 seats on either side. 

Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, gave a 6 per cent edge to the NDA. The NDA is projected to win with a vote share of 44 per cent, whereas the Mahagathbandhan and others are likely to garner a vote share of 38 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.

Bihar assembly elections 2025: Region-wise predictions

Region	Total seats	NDA	Mahagathbandhan	Jan Suraaj Party	Others
Seemanchal	24	8	15	1	0
Champaran	21	12	9	0	0
Kosi	31	16	15	0	0
Bhojpur	49	27	21	0	1
Mithilanchal	58	32	25	0	1
Magadh	60	35	25	0	0

Bihar election voter turnout

Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 66.90%, up 9.6 points from 2020, in the just-concluded Assembly polls. Ten districts, including Muzaffarpur and Samastipur, crossed 70% turnout, most being NDA strongholds.

However, Katihar (78.84%), Kishanganj (78.15%), and Purnea (76.14%) in the Seemanchal region—Mahagathbandhan bastions with large Muslim populations—topped the list.

In phase one, 65.09% of 3.75 crore voters cast ballots across 121 constituencies. On Tuesday, 3.70 crore voters decided the fate of 1,302 candidates. Counting is scheduled for Friday.