February to be hotter, drier this year, says IMD; winter crops may be affected

India is set to experience a warmer and drier February following an unusually warm January, according to the India Meteorological Department. The weather office has indicated that these conditions may increase risks for the country’s key winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. 

As mentioned in a report in Reuters, the anticipated shift in weather patterns is expected to impact farmers and crop yields in crucial agricultural regions.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, stated, "The country's northwestern wheat-growing region is likely to receive less than 78 per cent of its long-term average rainfall. Maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country will be above average in February."

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are typically planted from October to December and require cold conditions for optimal yield during their growth and maturity phases. In January, minimum and maximum temperatures already exceeded normal levels, while rainfall was 31.5 per cent lower than average, Mohapatra said.

India’s main wheat-growing regions – Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh – are likely to be most affected by the forecasted conditions.

Mohapatra added, "Crops such as wheat and barley could suffer yield losses, as higher-than-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten the growing period. Below-normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India.”

By January 23, Indian farmers had sown wheat on a record 33.42 million hectares and rapeseed on 8.94 million hectares, according to farm ministry data. 

Dealers have indicated that any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India to step up its cooking-oil imports. India primarily sources palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.