'Not Tejashwi, BJP could be the real beneficiary of...': Pradeep Gupta's prediction for Bihar

Axis My India Chairman and Managing Director Pradeep Gupta has said that while anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is undeniable after two decades in power, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could emerge as an unexpected beneficiary of voter fatigue in Bihar. 

Speaking on Bihar's upcoming assembly election, Gupta said two new developments have significantly altered the state's political equation - the emergence of Prashant Kishor's new party and the Election Commission's ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

"These are two very new factors that make it difficult to draw inferences from past voting patterns. Of course, we do ground surveys, but insights are always clubbed with historical data for consistency. For that reason, it's difficult for people like us to make any prediction at this point. We’ll wait till the last ball is bowled," he said while speaking to Barkha Dutt.

Gupta described Nitish Kumar as the "common denominator" in Bihar's politics, but noted that anti-incumbency - while real - may not automatically translate into a Tejashwi Yadav advantage. "There is anti-incumbency of 20 years against Nitish Kumar, no doubt," Gupta said. "But the big question is — against whom? Nitish Kumar has ruled with both the BJP and the RJD–Congress at different times. So this anti-incumbency is collective. The fatigue factor is there, but its direction is unclear."

He argued that many traditional BJP voters now sense an opportunity for the party to finally form a government on its own in Bihar. "There's a growing section of voters, especially the BJP's loyal base, who feel - if the party can form governments on its own in states like Odisha, Karnataka, Assam, and Tripura, why not in Bihar?" Gupta said. "People have seen 35 years of Lalu and Nitish's governance. The only thing left for them to experience is a BJP-led government."

The Axis My India chief noted that a generational and demographic shift is also underway. "A new generation with a new mindset wants to see change," he said. "So, while there's anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, its benefit could well go to the BJP. I'm not saying it will definitely go to them - but it's possible.”

When asked whether he was willing to make an early prediction, Gupta said it was premature. "It's too early to call Bihar right now. The new factors and voter shifts make this election different from the past," he said. "We will wait till the end before making any firm projection."