Operation Sindoor signals strategic shift, tests Chinese-Pakistani military synergy: John Spencer

India’s Operation Sindoor is emerging as a defining moment not only for India’s evolving military doctrine but for the broader strategic dynamics of South Asia. Military scholars and analysts now agree it was not merely a reaction to cross-border terrorism but a deliberate assertion of India’s military will — aimed squarely at both Pakistan and, indirectly, China.

India-Pakistan Conflict with a Chinese Underpinning

Speaking to ANI, John Spencer, renowned urban warfare scholar and chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute, highlighted that “Operation Sindoor showcased India’s transition from a traditionally reactive posture to a proactive, precision-oriented doctrine.” This shift, Spencer noted, fundamentally changes deterrence in the region and reflects India’s growing military integration across services — a key advantage over its adversaries.

At the heart of Operation Sindoor lies a contest extending beyond India and Pakistan. Spencer observed that “Pakistan is essentially a Chinese-equipped military.” The operation became a testing ground for Chinese military hardware deployed via Pakistan. From radar systems to drones, Chinese technologies were scrutinized and, in many cases, reportedly found wanting.

India’s precise strikes, often using indigenous technology, signaled a message not only to Islamabad but also to Beijing. Spencer remarked that “this was absolutely a test of Chinese military technologies, both for the rest of the world and for China itself.” The message was clear: China’s proxy investments in Pakistan’s military may not deliver the battlefield edge once assumed.

Three Adversaries, One Operation

Indian military leadership acknowledges that Operation Sindoor involved confronting three adversaries — Pakistan, China (via its military technology), and Turkey (through defense cooperation with Pakistan). While Pakistan’s General Asim Munir has denied any ‘three-front’ scenario, Spencer insisted that “there are nuances of proxy warfare at play, and China’s military technology was absolutely being tested through Pakistan.”

The Curious Inaction of Pakistan’s Navy

Spencer raised questions about Pakistan’s naval posture, noting the absence of any significant response from the Pakistani Navy or Chinese frigates docked in Pakistani ports. He suggested India’s rising naval deterrence might explain this silence. “The Indian Navy has progressed to a point where it has achieved deterrence. That makes Pakistan’s next move less predictable,” Spencer said.

India’s Strategic Communication Still Evolving

Despite operational success, India’s information warfare and global messaging still lag adversaries like Pakistan, which aggressively pushes its narrative despite scant evidence. Spencer praised India’s restraint and precision in sharing intelligence but advised that “India needs to strengthen its communication game, especially in the global information domain.” He warned that perception management is as crucial as battlefield victories in the era of hybrid warfare.

Pakistan’s Dilemma: Chinese Tech Under Scrutiny

The consequences for Pakistan could be significant. The poor performance of Chinese-supplied systems may force Islamabad to reconsider its military procurements. Yet, as Spencer noted, “Pakistan faces severe financial constraints, and while they may wish for Western technology, geopolitical realities make this unlikely.”

China’s Silent Stake & A New Security Paradigm for India

While Operation Sindoor wasn’t a direct conflict with China, its implications are unavoidable. Chinese military technology was tested, revealing vulnerabilities in Beijing’s reliance on Pakistan as a counterweight to India. The broader message: India’s evolving doctrine and technological self-reliance are reshaping deterrence across the region.

Spencer concluded: “India achieved its strategic goals at low cost, and in doing so, has changed the security paradigm for the region.” Operation Sindoor was not merely about punishing cross-border terrorism but asserting military independence and signaling to adversaries — especially China and Pakistan — that the old playbook no longer applies.