'Uncomfortable subtext is conditionality': Ex-foreign secretary on US monitoring clause for Russian oil

Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao on Sunday flagged the 'uncomfortable subtext' of conditionality in the US decision to roll back 25 per cent tariffs on India linked to India's oil imports from Russia.

"The US Executive Order rolling back the 25% tariff on Indian imports says several things," Rao said on X. "It records that tariffs were imposed over India's Russian oil purchases, and that they are now being lifted because India has taken 'significant steps,' including commitments on energy sourcing, broader economic alignment, and expanded defence cooperation."

She said the order reflects a broader shift in how energy flows are being interpreted by Washington. "Strategically, this signals that energy choices are now treated as geopolitical behaviour, not just commercial decisions. Oil flows have become instruments of alignment," Rao said.

The foreign secretary also flagged how the episode puts India's strategic autonomy under scrutiny. "The order also shows how strategic autonomy is being stress-tested in practice: sovereign policy choices increasingly carry measurable economic costs or incentives," she said.

At the same time, she noted that the episode also highlights India's leverage in the bilateral relationship. "The tariffs were reversible because India matters - economically, strategically, and in the Indo-Pacific balance. Washington is negotiating with India, not sidelining it," Rao said.

However, Rao pointed to what she described as the "uncomfortable subtext" embedded in the order. "The uncomfortable subtext is conditionality. The order explicitly allows monitoring and potential snapback tariffs if Russian imports resume. 'Sufficient alignment' becomes an external yardstick applied to Indian policy," she said.

The former secretary added that this tension will shape India's diplomacy going forward. "The larger takeaway: partnership brings opportunity, but also pressure. Managing that balance - preserving autonomy while navigating interdependence - will likely define the next phase of India’s foreign policy trajectory,” Rao said.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump lifted the additional 25 per cent tariffs imposed over India's Russian oil purchases, but warned that the duties could be reimposed if India resumes buying crude from Moscow.

"The Secretary of Commerce, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and any other senior official the Secretary of Commerce deems appropriate, shall monitor whether India resumes directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil," Trump said in the executive order.

"If the Secretary of Commerce finds that India has resumed directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, the Secretary of State...shall recommend whether and to what extent I should take additional action as to India, including whether I should reimpose the additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 per cent on imports of articles of India." 

India, however, has maintained that its energy decisions are guided by domestic priorities. "Insofar as India's energy sourcing is concerned, the government has stated publicly on several occasions that ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians is the supreme priority of the government," the MEA said.

"Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy to ensure this. All of India's actions are taken and will be taken with this in mind."