With rising Indo-Pak tensions, what lies ahead for Bollywood films? Trade Experts weigh in

As political tensions between India and Pakistan arises once again, the ripple effect is being felt across, especially entertainment industry. With recent films like Bhool Chuk Maaf going the direct OTT route after announcing a theatrical release, will this become the new normal? How will this affect Bollywood and business going forward, especially when the industry has been going through a rough patch. We speak to trade analysts who weigh in the current scenario for the Hindi film industry. 

Taran Adarsh, a renowned trade analyst tells India Today, "After the ceasefire, we’ve seen a noticeable jump in box office collections during the weekend. That’s a very positive sign—it shows the box office is slowly getting back on track. Recently, we’ve had successes like Sunny Deol's Jaat which performed well across single screens and urban multiplexes, and now Raid 2 and Kesari Chapter 2 which is doing extremely well across the board. So, three theatrical successes within a month is an encouraging trend."

He added, "Looking ahead, even the advance bookings for the upcoming Hollywood biggie like Mission: Impossible- The Final Reckoning are promising. Let’s hope this momentum continues, especially now that the ceasefire is in place." The film recorded over 11000 advance bookings in less than 24 hours. 

Theatre owner and trade expert Vishek Chauhan shared his opinion, "The last quarter did fairly well, with Raid 2, Kesari Chapter 2, Chhaava. But the next quarter is looking very promising. Like the upcoming film Houseful 5. The recent song has been greatly loved and made a significant impact—it’s become an earworm, and audiences are really enjoying it. I believe the next quarter, starting in June, is going to be much stronger. With major releases like Housefull 5, which is a hugely popular franchise, things are looking fantastic."

"Following that, we also have Aamir Khan's film coming up in June, along with many other big releases. The Independence Day weekend will bring films like War 2 and more, so yes, the upcoming quarter is looking much better, with major franchises leading the way," he added.

Meanwhile, is it a cause of concern with growing trend of films getting postponed or pushed to direct digital release? Taran mentioned, "Except for Bhool Chuk Maaf, no other films have shifted to a direct-to-digital release. After the positive response to Raid 2 over the weekend, it's clear that theatrical releases are here to stay. From May 16 onward, all upcoming releases are expected to proceed as planned. There are no more postponements or last-minute changes to digital releases."

Vishek mentioned, "Regarding the recent Maddock situation, I think the only questionable aspect was the timing—cancelling just a day before release. But the situation was critical, and my full sympathies lie with Maddock. They’re one of the few production houses that have consistently understood the pulse of the audience and delivered great films. If they decided to cancel one film, it’s likely in the larger interest of their company. As exhibitors, we should respect that. The money saved will likely be reinvested in future films."

When asked if he feels the current tension will affect Bollywood's visibility Vishek added, "We will continue to see films being pulled, reshuffled, or questioned theatrically until we find a clearer trend. For now, it seems branded entertainment, franchises, or star-driven films are the safer bet. For instance, Kesari 2—formerly titled Shankara—has already done 70–80 crores in business. Audiences are showing clear preference for big brands and franchises like Housefull 5, War 2, Son of Sardar 2, Raid 2, etc.

He concluded, "That said, we’re still in a phase of churn. It will take some more time for the industry to figure out a steady formula like we had pre-COVID. But the water will find its level.”

Even as tensions looms across borders, the entertainment industry seems to be taking the dent positively in national interest.