Kotak Mahindra Bank Q4 results preview: Profit may rise 5-9%, NII over 30%; all eyes on deposits, unsecured loans

Kotak Mahindra Bank is likely to report a 5-9 per cent rise in profit for the March quarter on 30-35 per cent surge in net interest income (NII). Net interest margin is seen around 5.1-5.4 per cent, a drop sequentially.

Analysts said liability franchise may stay strong and that the asset quality and credit costs may exhibit steady trends. That said, they felt all would be on the traction in deposits and unsecured loans.

Phillip Capital expects Kotak Mahindra Bank to report 7.2 per cent YoY rise in net profit at Rs 2,965.50 crore compared with Rs 2,767.40 crore in the same quarter last year. NII is seen rising 29.6 per cent YoY to Rs 5,858.30 crore for the quarter from Rs 4,521.40 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. NIM is seen falling to 5.37 per cent from 5.47 per cent in December and 4.78 per cent in the March quarter of last year. Slippages are seen at Rs 800 crore, up 8.7 per cent. Gross NPA is seen at 1.83 per cent against 1.9 per cent in December quarter. 

For Motilal Oswal Securities, commentaries on stress in the SME book and other unsecured loans would be key monitorables. This brokerage sees profit at Rs 3,015 crore, up 8.9 per cent. The same brokerage expects NII jumping 33 per cent to Rs 6,016 crore.

Elara Securities sees profit at Rs 2,922 crore. NII is seen rising 34 per cent to Rs 60,58.60 crore on high loan mix that is towards high-yielding products while pre-provision operating profit is seen rising 22.7 per cent YoY to Rs 4,099 crore. NIM is seen at 5.1 per cent.

"The bank is likely to see yet another quarter of strong asset quality performance. Watch out for stress on ECLGS book. We anticipate lower stress on this book as well. We expect credit cost of 30bp (ex-of any buffer utilisation). Monitor management commentary on growth sustainability and transition, given emerging macro challenges," Elara said.

Emkay Global, meanwhile, sees NII at Rs 5,859.60 crore (up 29.6 per cent YoY) and profit at Rs 2,641.90 crore, down 4.5 per cent.

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