Only 200,000 of 250 million obese on GLP-1, Says Novo Nordisk as semaglutide Patent expires

As semaglutide went off-patent in India on March 20, innovator drugmaker Novo Nordisk said the market remains largely untapped, with only around 200,000 patients currently on GLP-1 therapy despite a much larger eligible population.

The patent expiry opens the segment to more than 40 expected generic manufacturers, marking the start of price competition in a category that has so far seen limited adoption due to high costs.

“Patent expiry is a natural part of the pharmaceutical product lifecycle, and we are well-positioned to navigate this evolving landscape,” said Vikrant Shrotriya, Managing Director, Novo Nordisk India.

India has about 89.8 million adults living with diabetes, according to the International Diabetes Federation’s Diabetes Atlas 2024, a number projected to rise to 156.7 million by 2050. Obesity levels are also high, with around 250 million people estimated to be living with obesity, according to ICMR-INDIAB data.

Despite this large disease burden, uptake of GLP-1 therapies remains limited. Novo Nordisk said only around 200,000 patients in India are currently on such medication, highlighting the gap between eligible patients and those receiving treatment.

The company has taken steps ahead of the patent expiry to strengthen its position. It recently reduced prices of injectable semaglutide in India by 37%, which it said has helped build momentum in the market. It has also partnered with Indian pharmaceutical companies to introduce second brands across diabetes and obesity indications, widening its reach ahead of generic competition.

“We are driven by patients, not patents,” Shrotriya said, adding that the company continues to focus on expanding access through partnerships, awareness and physician engagement.

The competitive landscape is now changing quickly. On the day of patent expiry, generic manufacturers launched lower-priced versions. Natco Pharma introduced semaglutide under the brands Semanat and Semafull in a multi-dose vial format at ₹1,290 per month for lower strengths and ₹1,750 for the highest strength, nearly 90% lower than the innovator product. Eris Lifesciences launched its version under the brand SUNDAE at ₹220 per shot, with a pen device expected in April priced between ₹4,000 and ₹4,500 per month.

The sharp price gap is expected to widen access, but it also introduces differences in product formats. While vials offer lower-cost options, pen devices provide ease of administration, which could influence patient preference and prescribing behaviour as the market develops.

According to CareEdge Ratings, the GLP-1 market, valued at around ₹1,000–1,200 crore in 2025, is expected to grow to ₹4,500–5,000 crore by 2030, with patent expiry acting as a key driver.

CareEdge also expects prices to decline by 40–50% in FY27 and by a further 10–30% in FY28 as competition intensifies.

“The demand for GLP-1 therapies is building, not just for diabetes but also for weight management. As prices come down, the addressable market could expand significantly, especially in urban centres,” said Rajesh Pherwani, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Valcreate Investment Managers LLP.

Beyond pricing, the next phase of growth will depend on awareness, physician adoption and distribution. For therapies that require long-term use, sustained patient engagement and clinical familiarity will be critical.

“We aim to achieve a meaningful shift through continuous awareness, education and coordinated efforts across the healthcare ecosystem,” Shrotriya said.

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