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IISc predicts worst-case scenario; projects 6.2 crore cases in India by March 2021

IISc predicts worst-case scenario; projects 6.2 crore cases in India by March 2021

Coronavirus pandemic: If the better-than-the-current-trend scenario continues then India could have 37.4 lakh coronavirus cases, 14 lakh active cases and 1.9 lakh deaths by the end of March 2021, stated IISc

Coronavirus crisis: IISc predicts best, worst case scenario Coronavirus crisis: IISc predicts best, worst case scenario

Indian Institute of Science (IISc) has mapped the potential best-case and worst-case scenarios in the country's coronavirus curve. According to the Bengaluru institute, as per the best-case scenario, India could witness the peak of coronavirus spread by September this year. As per the worst-case scenario, the peak could be as far as March 2021 with a total of 6.2 crore cases. The researchers took into account the current trend to project the figures.

According to the IISc research, if the current trend of cases continues then India could have 37 lakh coronavirus cases by September 1, including 10 lakh active cases. However, if the trend is better than the current scenario, then India could see as many as 20 lakh COVID cases, including 4.75 active cases, and 88,000 deaths by September 1.

If the better-than-the-current-trend scenario continues then India could have 37.4 lakh coronavirus cases, 14 lakh active cases and 1.9 lakh deaths by the end of March 2021.

As per the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra could have 6.3 lakh cases, Delhi 2.4 lakh cases Tamil Nadu 1.6 lakh cases and Gujarat 1.8 lakh cases by September. Maharashtra could report 25,000 deaths, Delhi 9,700, Karnataka 8,500, Gujarat 7,300, and Tamil Nadu 6,300 deaths.

The IISc researchers also predicted that as per the worst-case scenario, India might not witness a peak in coronavirus cases by March 2021, by when the country could have 6.2 crore cases, including 82 lakh active cases and 28 lakh deaths.

As on Thursday, India reported the highest single-day spike of 32,695 coronavirus cases along with 606 deaths in the last 24 hours. The total positive cases in the country stand at 9,68,876, including 3,31,146 active cases, 6,12,815 recoveries and 24,915 deaths, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare data states.

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