Skymet predicts normal monsoon for India

The upcoming monsoon season will see normal rainfall, says private weather forecaster Skymet. The company expects the monsoon to be 'healthy normal' to the tune of 103 percent (with an error margin of +/- 5 percent) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6mm for the four-month period from June to September. The projection will lift the sentiment of Indian agriculture, the only segment of economy which withstood the disruption caused by Covid-19 pandemic last year. A significant percentage of Indian agriculture is still rain fed and any positive news on monsoon front will reduce the fears of another economic disruption due to second wave of Covid-19 infection.

 "La Nina conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year presage softening and are expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. ENSO continue to wield a spike mid-way through the season suggesting fresh phase of cooling, albeit marginal, over the Central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out," Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, says.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that plains of North India along with few parts of Northeast region to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka face scare of scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August. The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is assuring good countrywide rainfall distribution.

According to Skymet, Monsoon 2021 probabilities are the following:

• 10% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 15% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 60% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 15% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 0% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

On a monthly scale, this will be as follows:JUNE - 106% OF LPA (LPA FOR JUNE = 166.9 MM)

• 70% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal

JULY - 97% OF LPA (LPA FOR JULY = 285.3 MM)

• 75% chance of normal

• 10% chance of above normal

• 15% chance of below normal

AUGUST - 99% OF LPA (LPA FOR AUGUST = 258.2 MM)

• 80% chance of normal

• 10% chance of above normal

• 10% chance of below normal

SEPTEMBER - 116% OF LPA (LPA FOR SEPTEMBER = 170.2 MM)

• 30% chance of normal

• 60% chance of above normal

• 10% chance of below normal

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