BT India @ 100: Arvind Panagariya sees Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana leading India’s 2047 growth map

Maharashtra may not be number one by 2047—but it’s already among India’s front-runners. At the Business Today India@100 Summit, Dr. Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, named the states he sees leading India’s economic rise—and explained why Maharashtra remains firmly in that league.

“Look at any high-income country—prosperity clusters along the coasts,” Panagariya said. “The same sorting is happening in India.”

He identified India’s eight highest per capita income states today: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Haryana, and Telangana. “Six of these are coastal. Telangana was coastal before bifurcation and is deeply integrated into the global economy via IT. Haryana, largely Gurgaon, is IT-driven too.”

From this group, Panagariya expects the top three states by 2047 to emerge. “These states are already far ahead—they’ll reach ‘Viksit Bharat’ levels long before 2047,” he said, referring to the World Bank’s $14,000 per capita income threshold.

Asked whether Maharashtra could take the top spot, Panagariya said rankings may be fluid but its trajectory is clear. “Number one—I don’t know. But Maharashtra will hit that $14,000 mark well before 2047. So will Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka and others.”

He credited India’s evolving urbanisation and entrepreneurial energy. “The market is doing its work—sorting, shifting, scaling. We don’t have to force it. Growth is happening.”