US-Israel strike on Iran: Attack puts 50% of India’s oil imports at risk via Hormuz

India’s oil supply chain faces renewed geopolitical risk after the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, heightening concerns over potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for the country’s crude imports.

According to data from analytics firm Kpler, nearly 50% of India’s total monthly crude oil imports transited through the Strait of Hormuz during January–February, up from 40% in November–December 2025. A blockade or prolonged disruption could therefore impact as much as half of India’s inbound crude volumes.

2.6 Million Bpd at risk

“A disruption at the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and significant implications for both India and global oil markets, as roughly 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of India’s crude imports transit the Strait,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst – Refining and Modelling at Kpler, told Moneycontrol. These supplies primarily originate from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

India’s dependence on the route has risen over the past two months, with Hormuz-linked imports increasing to 2.6 million bpd in February (month-to-date), compared with 2 million bpd last year. The shift reflects India’s recalibration away from Russian crude and a return to traditional Middle Eastern suppliers.

Limited bypass options

In the event of a blockade, India may explore crude routed via bypass infrastructure such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (to the Red Sea) and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (to Fujairah), both designed to circumvent Hormuz.

However, Ritolia cautioned that these pipelines have finite capacity and are prioritised according to producer export strategies. “They can mitigate but not fully offset a major Hormuz disruption. Access would depend on producer allocation decisions and commercial negotiations,” he said.

If Middle Eastern flows are constrained, India may be compelled to increase purchases of Russian crude despite ongoing Western scrutiny. Last year, the US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, and President Donald Trump recently stated that India had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases as part of a broader bilateral understanding.

Alternative sourcing options include the United States, West Africa (Nigeria, Angola), and Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela). While these routes ensure supply continuity, longer voyage distances would raise freight costs and modestly increase landed crude prices in the near term.

Import trends and price impact

Kpler data shows India imported 1.15 million bpd of Russian oil in February (month-to-date), up from 1.09 million bpd in January. Imports from Iraq declined to 942,000 bpd from 1.02 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia’s exports to India rose to 1.11 million bpd from 774,000 bpd.

Total crude imports stood at 5.47 million bpd in February (month-to-date), compared with 5.14 million bpd in January and 4.78 million bpd in February 2025.

A Hormuz disruption would likely trigger a sharp geopolitical risk premium in oil markets. “Brent prices could rise even before physical shortages materialise,” Ritolia noted, adding that India would face higher import bills, freight and insurance spikes, short-term supply tightness, and pressure on the rupee and fiscal balances.

Around 20% of global oil and petroleum liquids consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, said Prashant Vasisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings at Icra. “Any disruption will have broader repercussions across global energy markets,” he said.

India’s refined product exports could also be affected. So far this year, India exported 74,000 bpd of refined products via Hormuz, up from 55,000 bpd in 2025. While cargoes could be redirected toward Europe, Africa or Asia-Pacific, shipping times and freight rates would increase.

OPEC+ response

OPEC+ is weighing a potentially larger-than-expected production increase at its meeting on Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Reuters. The move comes as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already stepped up exports in anticipation of possible supply disruptions following the US-Israeli strike on Iran.

Eight members of the alliance — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — are scheduled to meet at 1100 GMT. Delegates had earlier indicated the group was likely to approve a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April. The planned hike was intended to align with rising seasonal demand, particularly from the US summer driving season, and followed a run-up in crude prices ahead of the strike on Iran.

An increase in April would formally end a three-month pause in production hikes. However, the scale of any additional increment beyond the previously discussed 137,000 bpd has not yet been finalised, one of the sources said. Both individuals declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks. Bloomberg earlier reported that a larger hike was under consideration, citing a delegate.

Exports already rising

Market signals suggest that some Gulf producers have moved pre-emptively. With tensions escalating in recent weeks and concerns mounting over potential disruption to regional exports, leading Middle Eastern suppliers appear to have increased shipments.

Abu Dhabi is expected to raise exports of its flagship Murban crude in April, according to two trade sources cited by Reuters. Saudi Arabia has also lifted production and exports as part of contingency planning, sources said earlier this week.

The eight OPEC+ members had previously agreed to raise production quotas by roughly 2.9 million bpd between April and December 2025 — equivalent to about 3% of global oil demand. Further increases were paused from January through March 2026 due to seasonal demand softness. The upcoming meeting now takes place against a markedly more volatile geopolitical backdrop.