NHPC Q4 results preview: Expect single-digit YoY growth, sequential performance may drop

State-owned hydropower major NHPC is scheduled to announce its earnings for the period ended on March 31, 2023, on Monday. Analysts, tracking the stock, expect the PSU firm to report growth on year-on-year (basis) but sequential performance may disappoint.

According to the brokerage firm's report, NHPC may report a single-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and net profit the Q4FY23 on a YoY basis, while on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) comparison, they may drop in the range of 30-75 per cent, the analysts estimate.

NHPC has signed several MoUs/agreements for developing renewable energy projects. Management commentary over order inflows and more project wins will be key for the state-run hydropower major.

India’s overall power generation grew 11.9 per cent YoY in Q4FY23. Renewable energy (RE) generation surged 20.4 per cent YoY, leading the overall generation mix after lignite, in Q4. Hydro-based generation saw a dip in the same period, but overall, RE generation stood at an average of around 11 per cent of the total power generation in Q4FY23, said brokerage firms.

Elara Capital expects NHPC to report a revenue at Rs 1,576.5 crore, up about 4.7 per cent YoY, but down about 30.6 per cent QoQ. EBITDA is seen at Rs 592.9 crore, falling about 60 per cent sequentially but rising 40 per cent on a yearly comparison. Adjusted net profit is seen at Rs 593.3 crore, down over 24 per cent QoQ but up 6 per cent YoY.

"NHPC’s net sales are likely to be higher by 4.7% YoY in Q4FY23E on better generation even as profit may rise 5.9% YoY. Q4FY22 also witnessed better generation, primarily due to better water availability," said Elara Capital maintaining its positive stance for NHPC in the hydro space.

For the entire financial year, NHPC may report a revenue of Rs 9,999.8 crore, with an adjusted profit after tax (PAT) at Rs 4,114.6 crore, added Elara Capital, which has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 55.
 

Shares of NHPC were trading at Rs 43.39 on Monday, rising 1 per cent, with a total market capitalization of Rs 43,585.41 crore. The PSU has gained about 30 per cent in the last one year, while the stock is flat in the last six months.

Antique Stock Broking sees NHPC's revenue at Rs 1,581 crore in the March 2023 quarter, up 5 per cent YoY but down 39 per cent QoQ. The company is seen reporting an EBITDA of Rs 442.7 crore, up 4 per cent YoY but down 74 per cent sequentially. Net Profit is likely to be at Rs 585 crore, up 4 per cent YoY but down 24 per cent QoQ.

Significant progress has been made by NHPC’s Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project, despite challenges. In the beginning of 4QFY23, 84 per cent of the estimated capex has been incurred. While the first two units are expected to be commissioned by March 23, the remaining six units will go on-stream over FY24E, said Antique.


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