What would it take for Nifty to hit 20K in Samvat 2079? Nilesh Shah explains

Samvat 2079 will reward disciplined investors, who can take the market volatility in his/her stride, said market veteran Nilesh Shah, as he foresees challenges to the stock market amid fast deteriorating global macros.

In an exclusive interview to Business Today TV, Shah said it would be unfair to assume that Samvat 2079 will be the year of wealth creation and that there would not be any worry.

The MD at Kotak AMC felt Samvat 2079 would be as volatile as 2078.

Shah counted crude oil, inflation, Russia-Ukraine war situation, and tightening monetary policies around the world among key areas of worry for investors.

India valuations: Expensive or not?

In the short run, Shah said India looks expensive vis-à-vis the peer group, as India's prevailing valuation premium over emerging markets stands at 80 per cent against the historical premium of 40 per cent.

However, "India is the cheapest market available on a five-year basis," he said, adding that the value depends upon where you stand.

Nifty@ 20K in Samvat 2079?

For the bulls to return to Dalal Street, and Nifty to touch the 20,000 mark in Samvat 2079, Shah said one would require the Russia-Ukraine war to end; one would want clarity from the US Federal Reserve that it is not increasing but looking to cut interest rates. One would wish to see the inflation problem plaguing global economies to settle down, Shah said.

If these three things are achieved, "there is a reasonably good chance for the Indian market to touch that magic number," Shah said.

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