Muhurat trading 2025: Where smart money could flow this Diwali — expert view on gold, Nifty, and more

As Diwali 2025 lights up homes and trading screens, investors prepare for the annual Muhurat Trading session — a one-hour symbolic window that blends prosperity, faith and finance. Scheduled this year for October 21 from 1:45 p.m. to 2:45 p.m., the session marks the start of the new Samvat year and is often treated as an auspicious moment to place the first trade under Goddess Lakshmi’s blessings.

Market dynamics entering this Muhurat session are mixed. After a volatile Samvat 2081 that saw the Nifty gain 6.2% and the Midcap index 4.3%, high valuations, uneven earnings and global trade tensions have kept volatility firmly in play. Yet domestic buying has remained resilient. Sandeep Rao, a SEBI-registered research analyst, in a recent podcast on YoutTube said this year’s Muhurat will likely reflect that cautious optimism: “Domestic flows and retail sentiment are strong, but investors should be mindful of thin liquidity and headline risks,” Rao notes.

So where should investors look this Diwali? Rao’s analysis points to three practical options.

> Equities — steady, long-term focus: Backtests on a decade of Diwali SIPs into a Nifty ETF show an annualized IRR near 14% for those who invested ₹1 lakh every Diwali — broadly similar to systematic monthly SIPs. “Investing on Muhurat has symbolic value, but there’s no proven timing edge,” Rao says. For investors, the takeaway is to treat Muhurat investments as a disciplined entry point rather than a market-timing bet.

> Gold — a recent outperformer: Gold has outpaced equities in recent years. A decade-long SIP into a Gold ETF shows an IRR around 19%, largely driven by last-few-years’ strength. Rao cautions that past outperformance need not repeat but acknowledges gold’s role as a hedge: “A strategic allocation to gold can protect portfolios against geopolitical shocks and currency weakness,” he adds.

> Balanced mix — lower volatility, smoother returns: Rao recommends a 50:50 blend of Nifty and Gold ETFs for conservative investors who want exposure to both growth and hedge. In Rao’s view, that combination delivers a sensible balance between upside potential and volatility control, aligning cultural intent with financial prudence.

For short-term traders, Rao highlights intriguing but limited historical patterns. A Buy-Today-Sell-Tomorrow (BTST) around Muhurat has shown positive gaps in past years on both Nifty and Gold ETFs, but sample sizes are small. “These anomalies merit further testing, and execution costs matter,” Rao warns. He also urges intraday participants to keep positions small during the Muhurat hour because liquidity tends to be lower and institutional participation limited.

Ultimately, Muhurat trading is as much about ritual as return. Rao emphasizes discipline: “If you choose to participate, let it reinforce a savings habit rather than become a speculative event.” This Diwali, investors can honor tradition and remain prudent — small positions, clear risk limits, and a long-term lens will keep portfolios—and festive spirits—intact.

Muhurat trading 2025

As per the latest exchange circular, the Muhurat trading session for 2025 will be held on Tuesday, October 21, instead of Monday, October 20. On this day, the Indian stock markets will remain closed except for the special one-hour Muhurat trading window.

In a change from tradition, this year’s session will take place from 1:45 PM to 2:45 PM, rather than during the usual evening hours. A 15-minute pre-open session will be conducted from 1:30 PM to 1:45 PM.

Session Schedule (Source: NSE)

Block Deal Session: 1:15 PM – 1:30 PM

Special Pre-open (IPO & Relisted Securities): 1:30 PM – 2:15 PM

Normal Market (for special pre-open stocks): 2:30 PM – 2:45 PM

Call Auction Illiquid Session: 1:50 PM – 2:35 PM

Closing Session: 2:55 PM – 3:05 PM

Trade Modification Cut-off: 1:45 PM – 3:15 PM