Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 104 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open with big cuts on Friday amid the weakness in the Asian stocks led by profit booking. Markets across the globe are looking at the last week before a trade deal with the US. IT stocks may witness some pressure after harsh commentary from Donald Trump.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 103.90 points, or 0.41 per cent, down at 24,991.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian shares eased from highs on Friday as investors locked in profits ahead of a crucial week. Nikkei and KOSPI shed half a per cent each, while Hang Seng slipped 0.65 per cent in the early trade.

Near‑term pressure will persist until climbing IT stocks and clarity on major trade agreements- especially with the US- are achieved. If the broader global environment stabilizes or if the India-UK FTA progresses, renewed investor interest could return, said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital. "Investors will be watching for clarity on trade deals and recovery cues from tech fundamentals," he said.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched record high closes on Thursday. The S&P 500 crept up 0.07 per cent to end the session at 6,363.35 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.18 per cent to 21,057.96 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.70 per cent to 44,693.91 points.

The dollar steadied near two-week lows on Friday, on track for its biggest weekly drop in a month. The dollar index was at 97.448, set for a drop of 1 per cent this week, its weakest performance in a month. US 10-year Treasury yields edged down to 4.39 per cent on Friday, effectively erasing an advance on Thursday.

In the commodities, gold was flat at around $3,368 per ounce, keeping it on course for a 0.5 per cent rise this week. Brent crude futures gained 0.3 per cent to $69.35 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 0.2 per cent to $66.18 per barrel.

"Select private banking majors are leading the trend, while other sectors are playing a supporting role. Given the mixed signals, we reiterate our advice to maintain a stock-specific approach and adopt a hedged strategy," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,133.69 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,617.14 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

The intraday market texture appears weak, a fresh selloff is possible only after the levels of 25,000/82,000 are breached. Below these levels, the market could retest 24,900-24,835 / 81,700-81,500, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "If the market moves above 25,125/83,200, a technical bounce back to 25,250/82,800 could occur," he said.

Nifty's action indicates formation of Bearish Engulfing type candle pattern. This is a negative indication. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact and Thursday's swing high of 25,246 could be a new lower top of the pattern. The immediate resistance of 25,250 remains active, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"The underlying trend of the Nifty is still weak. Presence of strong overhead resistance and the formation of bearish patterns indicates chances of more weakness in the short term. A slide below 24,900 levels could possibly open some more weakness down to 24,500 levels in the near term," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a red candle on the daily scale, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. For a fresh up move, it must sustain above the 57,300–57,320 zone, while on the downside, immediate support is seen at 56,550, where the 34-DEMA is placed, followed by 56,200, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates.

The Nifty Bank pattern suggests selling pressure at higher levels, while the lower wick indicates some buying interest at lower zones, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 57,000 mark, followed by the 56,700–56,500 zone. A breach below these levels could open the door for further downside," he said.