BJP may improve 2019 seat tally; concerns of a repeat of 2004 misplaced, says Antique

Lok Sabha elections 2024: Antique Stock Broking in its latest strategy note said that the incumbent BJP is better placed in 2024 and based on its analysis of voter turnout mapped against the winning margin in 2019, it expects the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led party to surpass 2019 seat counts.

The incumbent party may improve its 2019 tally but fall short of the opinion poll expectation of NDA winning 370-410 seats, the brokerage said.

The fifth phase of ongoing elections would take place on May 20 across 49 constituencies in six states and two Union Territories. The Lok Sabha elections will conclude on June 1 and the outcome for the same is scheduled for June 4.

"Key findings from our analysis are: First time optional postal ballot facility to voters aged 85+ and the disabled may lead to an upward revision in voter turnout and a repeat of the 2004 trend of poor voter turnout resulting in loss of seats for the BJP is unwarranted, as there is a significant expansion of its voter base (especially among lower income households)," Antique said.

Antique Stock broking said lopsided elections, as seen recently in Gujarat & Punjab assembly polls, does lead to drop in voter turnout but said its analysis so far indicate BJP is better placed.

Antique said the final turnout data may increase further as the Election Commission has provided an optional postal ballot facility for the first time to voters above 85 years (82 lakh or 0.8 per cent of the total electorate) and with disabilities (88 lakh or 0.9 per cent of the total electorate).

"This segment was not included in the current voter turnout data. Given the number of welfare schemes implemented by the incumbent government for disabled, there are indications that this segment's political preference is towards the current ruling party," it said.