Asian Paints Q4 earnings today, stock trading flat; here's what to expect 

Shares of Asian Paints were trading on a flat note ahead of the firm's Q4 and fiscal earnings set to be announced today. Kotak Equities expects sales at Rs 8,709.1 crore in the Q4FY25 against Rs 8.730.8 crore sales in the March 2024 quarter.  EBITDA is seen falling 8.3% to Rs 1550.9 crore in the last quarter against Rs 1,691.4 crore EBITDA in the March 2024 quarter. 

"We expect some sequential improvement in growth trends for the standalone business (largely  domestic decorative paints), with (-)1%/mid-single digit (~5-6%) yoy value/volume growth (versus (- )7.5%/1.6% yoy growth in 3QFY25)," said Kotak Equities. 

The brokerage expects profit after tax to fall 14.8% to Rs 1070.3 crore from Rs 1256.7 crore in the Q4 of the year ago. 

"We estimate consolidated gross margin at 43% ((-) 65 bps/60 bps yoy/qoq), partly aided by a benign  RM environment, offset by increased trade spends and weak mix. We expect EBITDA margin at  17.8% (down 140 bps yoy), led by negative operating leverage and heightened operating costs in light  of increased competition," added Kotak Equities. 

Brokerage Systematix sees revenue in the last quarter at Rs 8606 crore, falling 1.4% on a year basis. Profit is likely at Rs 1124 crore in Q4. EBITDA is seen coming at Rs 1635.1 crore in Q4, down 3.3% on a year on year basis.

The brokerage expects outlook on industry demand revival, volume growth pricing and competitive intensity are the key deliverables during Asian Paints earnings today.

Centrum Broking sees a 2.5% fall in revenue to Rs 8,512.5 crore in Q4 against Rs 8730.8 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.  

Profit after tax is likely to come at Rs 1073.5 crore in Q4, slipping 16% from Rs 1275.3 crore profit in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. 

The paint major is likely to post an EBITDA of Rs 1,578.1 crore, down 6.7% from Rs 1691.4 crore in the yaer ago period. 

Meanwhile, shares of Asian Paints were trading 0.31% higher at Rs 2339.95 on BSE in the current session. Total 0.24 lakh shares of Asian Paints changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 5.55 crore. Market cap of Asian Paints stood at Rs 2.24 lakh crore. 

Asian Paints shares have a one-year beta of 0.5, indicating very low volatility during the period.

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Asian Paints stands at 41.2, signaling it's trading in the oversold zone. Asian Paints stock is trading lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.In the last six months, the Asian Paints stock has slipped 15.50%.