HDFC Bank shares set for rally? Q4 results strong; here are revised price targets

HDFC Bank has recorded a steady growth for the March quarter, with in-line profit, a beat on net interest income (NII), and a marginal improvement in core margins sequentially. Following its quarterly results, a few stock analysts have maintained their 'Buy' ratings but increased target prices for the HDFC Bank stock to roughly Rs 2,200-2,350 apiece.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said the HDFC Bank's Q4FY25 earnings were strong, given the positive outcomes on asset quality, gain in deposit market share, improving LDR and uptick in core NIM. It reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 2,195 from Rs 1,950. The domestic brokerage said it cut its NIM estimates for HDFC Bank, but revised opex and credit cost estimates, leading to insignificant EPS revision.

HDFC Bank ADRs settled 4 per cent higher in NYSE trading on Friday.  At home, HDFC Bank shares are up 7 per cent in 2025 so far and 26 per cent in the past one year. Jefferies upped its target on the stock to 2,340 from Rs 2,120. 

HDFC Bank said NIM (including IT refunds) rose 11 basis points QoQ to 3.54 per cent in Q4FY25 and that the bank's business growth was healthy, aligning with the bank’s strategy to reduce the C/D ratio consistently. 

"Asset quality improved, with slippages remaining at a controlled level, while PCR stood stable at 67.9 per cent. Further, HDFCB continues to hold healthy provisions of Rs 25,900 crore, or 1 per cent of loans. We factor in loan growth of 10 per cent/13 per cent for FY26/FY27," MOFSL said.  

This broking firm believes that a gradual retirement of high-cost borrowings and an improvement in operating leverage should support return ratios going ahead, as it upped earnings estimates by 3-5 per cent for FY26-27 and estimated HDFC Bank to deliver an FY27 RoA/RoE of 1.9 per cent/14.6 per cent. It suggested 'Buy' and a target price of Rs 2,200 on the banking stock. 

Jefferies maintain 'Buy' on HDFC Bank  and upped its target price to Rs 2,340 from Rs 2,120 apiece. CLSA also retained 'Buy' and suggested a revised target price of Rs 2,200 from Rs 1,785 earlier. Macquarie suggested 'Outperform' on HDFC Bank and increased its target price to Rs 2,300.

Nirmal Bang is positive on HDFC Bank from a long term basis due to its best-in-class asset quality, growth potential, and merger synergies in the long term. In addition, a non-specific provision buffer at 1.4 per cent of the loan book provides comfort, Nirmal Bang said. It suggested a revised target price of Rs 2,236 on HDFC Bank against Rs 2,092 earlier. "Our target multiple of 2.6 times Mar-27E ABV is at a 7.4 per cent discount to its past 5-year average P/ABV multiple of 2.8 times," it said.

IIFL Securities suggested a target of Rs 2,160 based on 2.45 times core FY27 P/BV for average FY26-28E ROA/ROE of 1.8 per cent/14 per cent. This brokerage expects a stable execution in the next few quarters, and sees a significant market share gain potential over an extended period of time.